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Jedd Corpse
03-10-2008, 07:01 PM
More news on Admiral Fallon...

An admiral takes on the White House
By Gareth Porter

WASHINGTON - A new article on CENTCOM commander Admiral William Fallon confirms that his public statements last autumn ruling out war against Iran were not coordinated with the White House and landed him in trouble more than once with President George W Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney.

In an admiring article on Fallon in Esquire, former Pentagon official Thomas P M Barnett writes that Fallon angered the White House by "brazenly challenging" Bush on his aggressive threat of war against Tehran. Barnett also cites "well-placed observers" as saying Bush may soon replace Fallon with a "more pliable" commander.

Barnett's account, which quotes conversations with Fallon during the CENTCOM commander's trips to the Middle East, shows that Fallon privately justified his statements contradicting the Bush

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policy of keeping the "option" of an unprovoked attack on Iran "on the table" as necessary to calm the fears of Egypt and other friendly Arab regimes of a US-Iran war.

Barnett recalls that when Fallon was in Cairo in November, the lead story in that day's edition of the English-language daily Egyptian Gazette carried the headline "US rules out strike against Iran" over a picture of Fallon meeting with President Hosni Mubarak.

That story, published on November 19 and not picked up by any US news media, reported that Fallon had "ruled out a possible strike against Iran and said Washington was mulling non-military options instead".

Later that day, according to Barnett, Fallon told him during a coffee break in a military meeting, "I'm in hot water again," and then confirmed that his problems were directly with the White House.

That was the second time in less than a week and the third time in seven weeks that Fallon had publicly declared that there would be no war against Iran. In an interview with al-Jazeera television in September, which Fallon himself had requested, according to a source at al-Jazeera, he had said, "This constant drum beat of conflict is what strikes me as not helpful and not useful."

And only a week before the trip to Egypt, in an interview with the Financial Times of London, Fallon had said a military strike was not "in the offing", adding, "Another war is just not where we want to go."

These statements represented an extraordinary exercise of power by a combat commander, because it contradicted a central feature of the Bush-Cheney strategy on Iran. High-ranking Bush administration officials had been routinely repeating the administration's line that no option had been taken "off the table" since early 2005.

At an October 17 news conference, Bush said he had "told people that if you're interested in avoiding World War III, it seems like you ought to be interested in preventing them from having the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon".

Fallon's public statements explicitly ruling out an attack on Iran thus undermined the Bush administration's threat against Iran.

The willingness of the top commander in the Middle East to take the military option "off the table" was in part a reflection of the determination of uniformed military leaders to prevent what they regarded as a disastrous course.

The new chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, who replaced General Peter Pace in June, was even more candid about his opposition to the use of force against Iran than Pace had been, according to a Congressional staffer who had participated in private meetings with both. Pace declared publicly in late October, "We have to be mindful of the risks that would [be spawned] by engaging in a third conflict" in the region.

Mullen added, however, that military options "cannot be taken off the table".

But Fallon, as the commander responsible for the entire Middle East, was concerned about more than the consequences of actually exercising the military option. He was prompted to enunciate a "no-war" line on Iran by the panicky reactions of Arab states to what they thought were indications of the warlike intentions of the Bush administration.

In the latter half of 2007, friendly Arab regimes were upset by the possibility of a US-Iran war, which they feared would destabilize the entire region. Fallon is quoted as telling Barnett, "t's all anyone wants to talk about right now. People here hear what I'm saying and understand. I don't want to get them too spun up."

Fallon told Barnett that his ruling out of military action against Iran was necessary to calm the very regimes the Bush administration was hoping to enlist to support its anti-Iran line. "Washington interprets this as all aimed at them," Fallon said in Cairo, according to Barnett. "Instead, it's aimed at governments and media in this region. I'm not talking about the White House."

Fallon was arguing, in effect, that it makes no sense to make the possibility of an unprovoked attack part of your declaratory policy if it merely induces confusion and panic among friendly governments without influencing the target of the threat.

Barnett quotes Fallon as complaining that "they" - meaning White House officials were asking him, "Why are you even meeting with Mubarak?" But Fallon strongly defended the diplomatic role he was playing in relations with Mubarak and other Middle Eastern leaders. "This is my center of gravity," Fallon told him. "This is my job."

Fallon's sensitivity to the political-diplomatic consequences of a declaratory policy that explicitly keeps open the threat of an aggressive war as a potential option set him apart not only from the White House but from the consensus among national security specialists in both parties. In early 2007, all three of the top three Democratic contenders for the presidential nomination publicly declared their support for keeping "all options on the table".

Fallon is not the first CENTCOM commander to rein in aggressive White House policy toward the Middle East. In late 1997, according to Dana Priest's book, [I]The Mission, the Bill Clinton White House wanted CENTCOM commander General Anthony Zinni to order his pilots to provoke a military confrontation with Iraq in the no-fly zone by deliberately drawing fire from Iraqi planes.

The request for such a provocation was conveyed to Zinni by the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Joseph Ralston. But Zinni, who believed that it could lead to an unwanted war with Iraq, insisted that a formal request from the White House would have to be sent, and the plan was dropped.

The unhappiness of the Bush administration with Fallon's role as well as the unflattering picture of administration policy revealed by the article was evident last Thursday from the failure of either the White House or the Pentagon to issue the usual reassuring statements in response to the article.

The White House declined to comment, although, according to the Washington Post's Thomas Ricks, the article "was being discussed there". Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell said Secretary of Defense Robert Gates "has read the profile on Admiral Fallon but chooses not to comment on it or other press accounts".

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/JC11Ak02.html

Jedd Corpse
03-11-2008, 04:42 PM
Guess the articles were true...


Fallon Resigns As Mideast Military Chief

1 hour ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — Defense Secretary Robert Gates says that Admiral William Fallon, the top U.S. military commander for the Middle East, is resigning.
Gates said Fallon had asked Gates for permission to retire and that Gates agreed.
Fallon was the subject of an article published last week in Esquire magazine that portrayed him as opposed to President Bush's Iran policy. It described Fallon as a lone voice against taking military action to stop the Iranian nuclear program.
Fallon has had a 41-year Navy career. He took the Central Command post on March 16, 2007, succeeding Army Gen. John Abizaid, who retired. Fallon previously served as commander of U.S. Pacific Command.



http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5g4TCb3GE9GQnVpZaWHA-cPBpbwmwD8VBDRV80

akipt
03-11-2008, 08:36 PM
Adios.

But he'll be back. He'll have to get in line behind Wesley Clark though.

Sanchek
03-13-2008, 12:41 PM
Split this from the other thread, so it's not buried.

Is this indication that Iran is fucked? Fallon was basically all that was holding us back from striking Iranian nuclear targets, wasn't he?

Jedd Corpse
03-13-2008, 12:56 PM
Split this from the other thread, so it's not buried.

Is this indication that Iran is fucked? Fallon was basically all that was holding us back from striking Iranian nuclear targets, wasn't he?

It indeed means Iran is fucked... but it also means we are fucked, and so are a whole bunch of other people in the middle east once combat starts.

Ailwon
03-13-2008, 01:01 PM
We are all fucked if that evil bastard attacks that other evil bastard's country. Bush, or more accurately, Chenney is going to use Iran to devert attention away from the slow erosion of this country's constitution, economy, budget under this administration and, of course, their continual failure in Iraq. If it happens, I'll be out there protesting to the best of my ability.

It also wouldn't surprise me to see them concoct something to suspend the presidential elections because of the threat to the country....

It's their dastardly plan to create Iraniraqistan...yeah that's it!!


ok, tin hat is now off.:p

Sanchek
03-13-2008, 01:15 PM
It indeed means Iran is fucked... but it also means we are fucked, and so are a whole bunch of other people in the middle east once combat starts.
Oh, I agree.

We've already screwed ourselves profoundly by overextending into multiple untenable military conflicts. If we tried to mire ourselves in Iran too, I don't even know how to predict the long term consequences of that.

What economy?

LummusL
03-13-2008, 01:15 PM
The fact that military men are for the most part NOT politicians are one of the strongest checks and balances we have.

Sanchek, Iran is doable. It requires:

Complete shift of economic resources to wartime production.
A draft.
Nuclear weapons.

Good bet that would not go over well with anyone.

Jedd Corpse
03-13-2008, 01:19 PM
The fact that military men are for the most part NOT politicians are one of the strongest checks and balances we have.

Sanchek, Iran is doable. It requires:

Complete shift of economic resources to wartime production.
A draft.
Nuclear weapons.

Good bet that would not go over well with anyone.

A pre-emptive war with a draft and nuclear weapons would not go over well with anyone!

Sanchek
03-13-2008, 01:23 PM
Sanchek, Iran is doable. It requires:

Complete shift of economic resources to wartime production.
A draft.
Nuclear weapons.

Good bet that would not go over well with anyone.
What do you think would happen if we dropped nukes on Russia's doorstep?

I can't imagine any scenario where we use a nuke and the world as we know it survives.

Jedd Corpse
03-13-2008, 01:25 PM
What do you think would happen if we dropped nukes on Russia's doorstep?

I can't imagine any scenario where we use a nuke and the world as we know it survives.

Iran is also in the process of joining the SCO...

allamar
03-13-2008, 05:02 PM
Bush cant be that stupid to ever use nukes on a pre-emptive war (though he keeps amazing me at how stupid he can be, i just pray hes not THAT stupid). The world outcry would reach insane levels and any kind of good reputation we actually still have left, would be gone forever.
Not to mention what Russia and China would do. Since that would be close to there doorsteps. You cant even begin to imagine the ramifications of what that action would create around the world.
Thats a pandoras box that should never be opened.


Im all for a draft, every war we got going atm, would end over night. Forcing people to fight wars they dont believe in, would be the final nail in this administrations coffin. There would be Protests in the streets bigger then anything from the Vietnam/civil rights era ever had.
Notice when the word Draft is mentioned to the bush administration, they dodge it like it was a plague. Squirming and recoiling back like a vampire facing a cross.
They would as soon as let those who enlist die to the last man, before they ever uttered the word draft.

Bylimet Spiritwalker
03-13-2008, 07:38 PM
I am still waiting for someone with some courage and/or integrity in Washington to start the ball rolling on an investigation of Cheney and Halliburton's involvement in Iran, and exactly what evidence Cheney is wanting destroyed with those bombs he wants so badly to have dropped on Iran.

Kanyli
03-13-2008, 09:32 PM
Iran has been in our cross hairs for a while now. Frighteningly, all of the reasons not to invade that have been posted above were also said about Iraq, and you can see how well that worked out for us.

We don't need nukes. We have conventional bombs just as destructive now (name escapes me, anyone help?), just as controversial to the right people, but because you drop the word 'nuke' the population at large doesn't rise up in protest. Sadly, I think the US population has already allowed the Bush administration to trample so many values that I don't think a draft would really stir us up as you might hope. Our best hope against Iran would be to bomb them flat, civilians and all, and I don't see that as being beyond the thinking of our current leaders.

As for their administration being over - it already is. Bush and crew are on the way out of the White House after this year. That means they have no reason (well, other than legacy) to appease the masses anymore. If Iran is on the agenda, and I believe it is, watch for a strong push. Also, keep your eyes open for sudden terrorist warnings around election time.

Jedd Corpse
03-13-2008, 09:33 PM
Iran has been in our cross hairs for a while now. Frighteningly, all of the reasons not to invade that have been posted above were also said about Iraq, and you can see how well that worked out for us.

We don't need nukes. We have conventional bombs just as destructive now (name escapes me, anyone help?), just as controversial to the right people, but because you drop the word 'nuke' the population at large doesn't rise up in protest. Sadly, I think the US population has already allowed the Bush administration to trample so many values that I don't think a draft would really stir us up as you might hope. Our best hope against Iran would be to bomb them flat, civilians and all, and I don't see that as being beyond the thinking of our current leaders.

As for their administration being over - it already is. Bush and crew are on the way out of the White House after this year. That means they have no reason (well, other than legacy) to appease the masses anymore. If Iran is on the agenda, and I believe it is, watch for a strong push. Also, keep your eyes open for sudden terrorist warnings around election time.

Sad thing is that if we attacked Iran the way you mentioned, we would be 200% less safe.

Kanyli
03-13-2008, 09:51 PM
Rational people understand that. Our leaders - and I've been saying the same damn thing since pre-Afghanistan invasion - fail to understand the culture in that part of the world. They still believe you can apologize after a fight, and everything is okay. Not to mention that the western way of thinking is obviously best. If we flatten Iran, Russia and Syria, among others, are going to be pissed and looking at us. Every ally in the region is going to distance themselves from us. And this will just keep building.

I read an article once which described people who believe the end of the world will come about in their time, and therefor don't feel any particular need to plan for a future beyond their lifetime. Bush was listed specifically, and it was used to justify his environmental stances. Anyone know what I'm talking about?

Nekko1
03-13-2008, 09:56 PM
he will just go to work for one of the big defense contactors as a consultant and make a killing.

You talking about 2012 predictions the fall of isreal and armagegon Kany ?

Wiggo da troll
03-13-2008, 10:15 PM
Rational people understand that. Our leaders - and I've been saying the same damn thing since pre-Afghanistan invasion - fail to understand the culture in that part of the world. They still believe you can apologize after a fight, and everything is okay. Not to mention that the western way of thinking is obviously best. If we flatten Iran, Russia and Syria, among others, are going to be pissed and looking at us. Every ally in the region is going to distance themselves from us. And this will just keep building.

I read an article once which described people who believe the end of the world will come about in their time, and therefor don't feel any particular need to plan for a future beyond their lifetime. Bush was listed specifically, and it was used to justify his environmental stances. Anyone know what I'm talking about?

the rapture, or the second coming of christ (i forget), which can only take place if the "people of god" (jews) inhabit israel?

Bylimet Spiritwalker
03-13-2008, 10:39 PM
Sadly, I think the US population has already allowed the Bush administration to trample so many values that I don't think a draft would really stir us up as you might hope.

While I am a strong proponent of a draft, for reasons having nothing to do with the Bush fuck-ups, I have to disagree with you on the statement quoted.

There have been countless news pieces done on parents who have talked their kids out of military service, due to the Bush policies and the ongoing wars. If a draft was even being seriously discussed in Congress I bet the phones and e-mails would decide that, with pledges of voting for someone else next election making up the minds of the folks in Congress. People will stand up to keep their kids safe.

velvetsilence
03-13-2008, 10:51 PM
The MOAB(massive ordinance aerial burst) aka affectionately known as the Mother Of All Bombs is one of them Kanyli.
In somewhat related news:
The USS Lincoln(CVN-72) set sail earlier today to relieve the the USS stennis I believe. the munitions had been quitely ferry'd over and loaded over the past week from the Puget Sound naval munitions depot(sorry the Name escapes me) none the sailors i drank with and hugged last night could say for sure. but they all agreed there are mostly likely blue striped munitions aboard.
the airwing will come aboard when the get to San Diego.
So we have a freshly re-stocked,re-supplied freshly maintained most terrifiying machine of war ever built heading to the sandbox.

P.S. Welcome to Washingon Lumm. what little backwater part of my state are ya visiting?

Haloface
03-13-2008, 11:34 PM
And while we're stretching ourselves to breaking point in the Mid-East for no reason, China is just smiling.

Kanyli
03-13-2008, 11:36 PM
MOAB, that's what I was trying to think of. And Daisysomething?

And to the question above - I really wish I'd saved that article. I want to say it was in Time, or something that my barber stocks, and came out back during Bush's first term. I think the assumption is about the rapture or second coming, more than the 2012 date.

Haloface
03-13-2008, 11:36 PM
PS not to go all 'historian' on you folks, but it's exactly what happened to Rome.
While Rome endlessly fought the Sassanid Persians in the East, jacking up taxes and conscription to cope with it all for little to no gain, the barbarians slowly displaced Rome's allies along the Danube and Rhine, and by the time the wars in the East had finished, Rome could not face up to the barbarian challenge in the following century, diminished in trade, fiscal capacity, population and administration.

Rover
03-13-2008, 11:50 PM
MOAB, that's what I was trying to think of. And Daisysomething?

And to the question above - I really wish I'd saved that article. I want to say it was in Time, or something that my barber stocks, and came out back during Bush's first term. I think the assumption is about the rapture or second coming, more than the 2012 date.


Daisy Cutters!!! They make big booms!

Bylimet Spiritwalker
03-14-2008, 12:06 AM
Daisy Cutters!!! They make big booms!

Dang! Thought it was Daisy Dukes....they make big bazooms!

Thormir
03-14-2008, 12:47 AM
While Rome endlessly fought the Sassanid Persians in the East, jacking up taxes and conscription to cope with it all for little to no gain, the barbarians slowly displaced Rome's allies along the Danube and Rhine, and by the time the wars in the East had finished, Rome could not face up to the barbarian challenge in the following century, diminished in trade, fiscal capacity, population and administration.Oh, well Halo, our current situation is totally different. We've been lowering taxes and doing all we can to find conscripts, most of who probably couldn't even locate the Danube or the Rhine. Completely different scenarios.

Haloface
03-14-2008, 05:56 AM
But you all wear Togas, right??

velvetsilence
03-14-2008, 08:44 PM
We do infact. my favorite is a stunning chiffon blue interspersed with sparkles. wanna picture?

The Rome analogy is spot on. the similarities simply amazing. I used to say that historians would make the best possible world leaders as they are experts on the F'ups of past world leaders.
sadly Newt Gingrich cured me of silly notion.

Rover
03-14-2008, 08:59 PM
When the local people who were supposed to be fighting each other were getting along the big shots would bring in an outsider. The Muslims around Vitez were not real crazy about shooting priests or kids or journalists so an outside sniper was brought in. She shot everybody, including this Catholic priest, who was a very positive influence in the community. A group of Croats finally went after her. They charged up the hill to her hideout and killed her. I have a hunch that the local Muslim soldiers told the Croats something like "We're going to be taking a long lunch today and won't be defending our position, so don't try anything funny..."


Funny things happen in war...even at the lowest levels dissent will rise.

Jedd Corpse
03-24-2008, 02:35 PM
Iran is also in the process of joining the SCO...

Found this today, looks like they are pushing forward.

Iran makes move to join SCO
Mon, 24 Mar 2008 17:35:54
Iran's Foreign Minister, Manouchehr Mottaki
Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki says Tehran is prepared to join the intergovernmental Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

The SCO has been formed to oppose US interference in Central Asia by developing regional security cooperation between member states - China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

Iran currently has observer status in the organization.

On Monday during his official visit to Tajikistan, Mottaki said Tehran has already applied to join the organization.

"Tajikistan has given us its support in the membership bid," said the Iranian minister after a meeting with Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon.

http://www.presstv.com/detail.aspx?id=48781&sectionid=351020101

This my friends means that if they have joined before we take action. That there will be Chinese Military bases in Iran, and we will have to not only fight Iran, but Russia and China if we go to war with Iran.

One of the non negotiable rules of being a part of the SCO is that you establish a base in each country, and each country establishes one in your country. They hold joint military exercises, and it is basically also a military alliance.

I am surprised that Iran is actually willing to let the Chinese or anyone else for that matter hold a base or a port in their country, but I guess with the threat of the US some concessions need to be made.

Fandros
03-24-2008, 02:42 PM
Does this also mean China and Russia will be held accountable for the Pres of Iran launching verbal and possibly actual strikes against Israel now that he has muscle in his corner?

Or is there some written nonaggression pact that goes along with this? If not it's the beginning of the end. I don't trust Iran's powers that be not to abuse power as they see fit.

I would not wish to live in Israel atm.

Jedd Corpse
03-24-2008, 02:49 PM
Does this also mean China and Russia will be held accountable for the Pres of Iran launching verbal and possibly actual strikes against Israel now that he has muscle in his corner?

Or is there some written nonaggression pact that goes along with this? If not it's the beginning of the end. I don't trust Iran's powers that be not to abuse power as they see fit.

I would not wish to live in Israel atm.

I am assuming that military action has to be approved by the SCO or no defense would be given to Iran... The ramifications of a member in the SCO going it alone and drawing the rest of the alliance into the war to defend them could be overwhelming.

Honestly Iran may not be run by the most peaceful men, but I am quite sure they are aware of the suicide they would be committing by launching an unprovoked attack against Israel or the United States. All this does is give them the backup in case that unprovoked attack comes from Israel or the US.

It is still not finalized as the SCO had a halt on new members, but it seems that Iran with its importance to Russia needing an endorsement for a multinational arrangement to exploit the Caspian Sea's energy resources, has a good chance.

Also the energy-hungry China wants Iranian oil and gas and to sell weapons and other goods to Iran. Russia also would like to sell more weapons and nuclear energy technology to Iran. So they may very well accept them now that they actually put a bid in to fully join.

Bylimet Spiritwalker
03-24-2008, 03:36 PM
Does this also mean China and Russia will be held accountable for the Pres of Iran launching verbal and possibly actual strikes against Israel now that he has muscle in his corner?

Or is there some written nonaggression pact that goes along with this? If not it's the beginning of the end. I don't trust Iran's powers that be not to abuse power as they see fit.

I would not wish to live in Israel atm.

Actually, Fanny, I am more concerned with Israel launching a preemptive strike prior to full member status being granted, in an attempt to damage the nuclear program of Iran as well as to draw us into an armed conflict with Iran.

I am sure the government in Israel knows that Iran has reached out to the U.S. with offers of cooperation in the region, and the only hope at this point of maintaining their prominent position of key ally in the region is to get something started while Ahmanutjob and Dubya are still the deciderers.
Calmer heads are on the horizon awaiting their turns at the helm.

As far as the SCO as an opposing body to the West, it should not be a surprise to anyone, with the saber-rattling of this administration and all but blatant threats of doing as we please in the region by both Bush and Cheney.

Fandros
03-24-2008, 06:53 PM
Can't disagree with you there Byl. Israel has had to become preemptive over the years. Everytime they give back they just find the missiles striking further into their nation.

It was a huge mistake forcing Israel there, the UN (err League of Nations?) really screwed the pooch there.

If they'd have found some open land in South America say and plopped them down there the conflict in the ME would be more focused , and just as ugly mind you, between the Shia and the Sunni imho.