What no mid-east turmoil thread? Well here ya go.. discuss.

Well I noticed the price on a barrel of crude went up $3.55 today to $89.19 a barrel.

I think its great. not the violence and those killed of course but seeing people rise and demanding freedoms and change. crazy stuff in the ME and N. Africa lately but encouraging.

It was bound to happen eventually, I just hope that as they throw off the shackles of oppression they don't trade the old rusty iron ones for a shiny new steel pair from a different dictator.

Administration basically said they may pull approx. 1.5 billion dollars in aid depending on the situation. Couldn't the US use the 1.5 billion more? I really am slightly angered out the money we send out of the country.

In my view the important points are:

a) Neither of these populist movements have any US backing, and most proximately resulted from information divulged by Wikileaks, which the US keeps trying to shut down.

b) Despite the populism being more or less the same, we support the existing Egyptian oligarchy while not caring about the Tunisian or Yemeni ones, and that hugely slants our corporate-owned news in educational ways for our own public, who are sadly too ignorant and stupid to notice the differences.

c) Our support for the Egyptian government is almost entirely because they toe the line on Israel, and beyond that we give them money without a care of how they treat their citizens.

d) Our Tea Party is a bunch of pansy ass faggots compared to people actually protesting and changing their governments.

d) Our Tea Party is a bunch of pansy ass faggots compared to people actually protesting and changing their governments.

Perhaps we just are not quite ready for a rehash of burning tires, angry mobs pushing over police cars and the authorities killing people in the good ole US of A? A nationwide version of the LA riots might be good for the US, but probably not. Most people would rather take their change in slow, small doses as change management is one of the most challenging aspects for any government or organization to face. First there was the housing bubble, than the Great Reccession which may or may not be over. Now the soveriegn debt crisis and maybe the student loan bubble looms as well. There is enough on the plate right now without the need for Revolution.

As for the whole Middle East turmoil, well expect to see a whole lot more. The young people there were not invited to the whole BRIC/Eurozone/North America carving up the world for their own economic gain party. Lots of people are left holding that bag, honestly. That includes most Chinese, almost all Indians, almost all Brazilians, all Russians but Putin and his cronies, all the Europeans minus the British bankers and German industrialists as well as most of the poor and middle class in North America. Blame the big multi-nationals would be best guess but perhaps it might be just as easy to blame it on there being too many people with not enough to do on too small a planet being carved up by a small handful of very greedy individuals.

http://i.imgur.com/rcPGl.jpg

I think it's a false start. Mubarak has been in power for three decades, he has his hand firmly on the Central Security Force (numbering some 300,000 and tantamount to his private army) and the support of the military - he'll just carry on supressing until everyone's dead, because he sure as hell ain't giving up the Presidency.

If the militatry hesitates, there'll be an almighty stand off as their strength is roughly the same as Mubarak's CSF. At this point though, the military ain't hesitating.

d) Our Tea Party is a bunch of pansy ass faggots compared to people actually protesting and changing their governments.

Because we chose to peacefully use the ballot box instead of burning down the white house. I see. Yes, pansy ass me....

Halo, what is your take of the underlying current to the Muslim Brotherhood in all of this.

From what Im seeing i think your wrong Halo. numerically correct yes but lets not forget they are still Egyptians as well. this really is showing no signs of abating at this point and where exactly does the tipping point for backing the losing horse occur?

It really is probably going to come down to whether key leadership in the army decides to back Mubarak or a populist candidate. You'd hope Mubarak would step down and go into easy exile with his Swiss bank "retirement account."

Reports are somewhat conflicting but right now the Egyptian military is at the very least only preventing confrontations and may be actively protecting the protestors from the loyalist police.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lsh4quDRx28&NR=1


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DQD-X9G9xfk

'From what Im seeing i think your wrong Halo. numerically correct yes but lets not forget they are still Egyptians as well. this really is showing no signs of abating at this point and where exactly does the tipping point for backing the losing horse occur?'

- Actually, in the last 24 hours I have been changing my opinion, which coincides exactly with world pressure. The lack of foreign commentary thus far made me believe that Mubarak and his security forces could continue a clamp down ala Iran in 2010 until the protests died down. But waking up this morning to see so much foreign pressure, yeah I think you're right, the army might start to hesitate. Especially as the Field Marshal Tantawi, though trusted by Mubarak, is not an ultra-loyalist. And his second, General Sami Enan, has such close ties to America that he is likely to channel any US influence (or pressure) into his colleagues.

The other view is that Mubarak is now appointing key security, intelligence, and military personnel into his 'new' government, strengthening the ties between the Presidency and the levers of domestic control and oppression which he'll depend so heavily on to retain power if he continues to ignore foreign calls for reform.

But, as of right now, the army is with the President, and he's not going anywhere, I still believe that. But I admit, the situation could change any time. I think it all depends on the army, which by its very behaviour is clearly divided and, at best, sitting on the fence.

Islamist nutbags busted out of jail = Americans evac right now.

Really don't see this ending well.

Islamist nutbags busted out of jail = Americans evac right now.

Really don't see this ending well.

Yeaaaaa this is gonna be a mess I agree.

Have not watched the "coverage" today but as of last night I did not see the military clamping down ruthlessly on the people. I am in total agreement that if the military leadership sides with the protesters it a done deal. but...If the guy driving the tank and the guy loading the breach make the decision to side with the people it will be more than done.

We have younger folks getting fed up throughout the Middle East with Tunisia, Yemen, and now Egypt finding themselves faced with the options of changing or giving in to complete and brutal dictatorships; and, the latter is only possible if the Armed Services are willing to back the current leadership.

What will be important next is whether the extremist factions gain power, as the Muslim Brotherhood seems to be positioning itself for in Egypt, or some form of true representative government can be established. And then, how far will this spread? Saudi Arabia's King and his sons must be getting very nervous.

And the one constant I have heard most often is that the internet and ability to take part in "social networks" has been a driving force, allowing people to see more than what their leaders are claiming to be the only version of a story. Hooray for the tubes!!! ;)

Do you mean youporn or youtube? lol

Halo, what is your take of the underlying current to the Muslim Brotherhood in all of this.
From what I've seen and read, the movement has been led most forcefully by middle class moderates rather than Islamists. It's a political movement instead of a religious one. That's not to say that the Muslim Brotherhood doesn't want a piece of the action or that, if an election somehow took place, that they wouldn't gain seats. But they're more bogeyman than potent actor. I think they're reputation for trouble has been bolstered by Mubarak in order to secure more US dollars for anti-terrorism.

The administration is walking a fine line between supporting democracy and free elections while still giving Mubarak a pat on the ass in support. They seem to be walking it pretty well. Note that while the US has long supported Mubarak (in large part because he's fairly secular and has kept the peace with Israel), USAID has given a lot of money to pro-democracy groups over the years. We've been playing both sides for a long time.

I'm sure nothing can possibly go wrong now.

Apparently they're trying to get Al Jazeera out now, so there goes the best non-Twitter source of information on what's happening: http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/01/201113085252994161.html

In parallel with the press clampdown there is also some interesting news that the Muslim Brotherhood is apparently willing to endorse the secular opposition party and demand open elections. That may be a cynical move, but.

From what I've seen and read, the movement has been led most forcefully by middle class moderates rather than Islamists. It's a political movement instead of a religious one. That's not to say that the Muslim Brotherhood doesn't want a piece of the action or that, if an election somehow took place, that they wouldn't gain seats. But they're more bogeyman than potent actor. I think they're reputation for trouble has been bolstered by Mubarak in order to secure more US dollars for anti-terrorism.

The administration is walking a fine line between supporting democracy and free elections while still giving Mubarak a pat on the ass in support. They seem to be walking it pretty well. Note that while the US has long supported Mubarak (in large part because he's fairly secular and has kept the peace with Israel), USAID has given a lot of money to pro-democracy groups over the years. We've been playing both sides for a long time.

I'm sure nothing can possibly go wrong now.

See I disagree that MB(Muslim Brotherhood) is "political" movement. IMHO they use political motivations to promote their fundamentalist ideologies. I mean what organizations were born from the fruits of the MB.. Al Qaeda for one. Should MB gain a firm footing in the Egyptian Gov't look for them to gain footing in the schools al a the Taliban. Look out Israel your working relationship with Egypt is long gone and you're now surrounded on all sides my a fundamentalist belief that you need to be eradicated!

Man, it's gotta be tough to be a hardline teabagger these days. I was listening to Sean Hannity for a few minutes on the way home, as he was trying to simultaneously aggrandize democracy and dictatorship. It basically sounded like he had split personalities arguing with themselves.

Meh, Unfortunately the local Fox AM station seems to be the only one that likes to give regular traffic updates on my way home. Some of this shit coming from them makes me want to scream.

I mean holy shit, I'm a gun toting, religion clinging conservative myself. But damn, these guys have just been so far out there lately it makes me sick.

Now Jordan is going tits up....

Well well well...


http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=206130

Congrats Osg you managed to find one nut case who thinks that. I'm sure he speaks for all 80 million Egyptians.
I'll counter with John Bolton who recently said that the fall of the Mubarak government was a sure sign that we need to bomb Iran and soon.
See we have nut cases on all sides but thankfully they rarely get their way.

Heh, maybe people are tired of having these governments where the majority of the people have no hope or future while the heads of state fly around on their own half billion dollar private A380 flying palaces. Hopefully Saudi Arabia goes down next. This is probably what the Arab world feared the most when we invaded Iraq and its probably happening now as it suggested that dictatorship is not the future. Grats us on giving the people a chance but also grats us on entirely destablizing the whole region.

Mubarak promised to step down and not run for a further term, but at this stage, it's a case of too little, too late.

Congrats Osg you managed to find one nut case who thinks that. I'm sure he speaks for all 80 million Egyptians.
I'll counter with John Bolton who recently said that the fall of the Mubarak government was a sure sign that we need to bomb Iran and soon.
See we have nut cases on all sides but thankfully they rarely get their way.

It is my opinion he speaks on the feelings of the MB. Anyways violence increases tenfold on clashes between Mubarak supporters and protesters. Let the good times roll!

I'm torn, on the one hand I *really* don't want to pay $10 a gallon for gas, but on the other I suppose it would be nice if every country in the middle east were to throw off the shackles of their totalitarian regimes and move toward democracy.

See I disagree that MB(Muslim Brotherhood) is "political" movement. IMHO they use political motivations to promote their fundamentalist ideologies. I mean what organizations were born from the fruits of the MB.. Al Qaeda for one. Should MB gain a firm footing in the Egyptian Gov't look for them to gain footing in the schools al a the Taliban. Look out Israel your working relationship with Egypt is long gone and you're now surrounded on all sides my a fundamentalist belief that you need to be eradicated!
I wasn't referring to the MB as a political movement; they are clearly religiously motivated. What I meant was that the uprising itself was more political than religious, populist as opposed to fundamentalist. The MB is riding the movement's coattails, or at least has been to this point. And while the MB isn't impotent and has committed terrorist acts, I suspect that Mubarak has played up their threat in order to continue receiving funds and support from the US.

I wasn't referring to the MB as a political movement; they are clearly religiously motivated. What I meant was that the uprising itself was more political than religious, populist as opposed to fundamentalist. The MB is riding the movement's coattails, or at least has been to this point. And while the MB isn't impotent and has committed terrorist acts, I suspect that Mubarak has played up their threat in order to continue receiving funds and support from the US.


Maybe it's the skeptical "tea-bagger" in me but I really think, while politcal on the outside, the MB is really the driving force under this clash. I do wish the true peaceful activists that want "hope and change" (ROFL) the best of luck.. I just think there are too many negative forces at work pushing their own agenda and democracy is not one of them.

Its fairly obvious it isn't the "MB" causing riots and protests throughout the world, its the poverty. UN's FAO showed that food prices worldwide have risen for the 7th month in a row to the highest levels ever. More expensive food, poor economic conditions, and oppressive (and rich) governments are begging to see a huge backlash. Its not just Egypt, its all of the Middle East and Africa that have significant unrest.

http://en.rian.ru/world/20110203/162433368.html

http://en.rian.ru/world/20110203/162433368.html

The deeply conservative Islamic movement, which wants to move Egypt from secularism and return to the rules of the Quran, failed to win a single seat in the 2010 Egyptian parliamentary election.

Reading comprehension my friend. Just because they want something doesn't mean anything. Plenty of people out there want plenty of dumb things, you and your friends who put their balls in each others mouths are a great example of that.

We will have to simply agree to disagree.... Thank you for playing the game.

you and your friends who put their balls in each others mouths are a great example of that.

OMG I owe you a drink for that(or several) and you owe me a new keyboard!

your under the assumption that the MB represents and speaks for all of Egypt. thats like saying Michelle Bachman speaks for all Americans.

Why do people become Islamist? Well, other than the bored middle class arabs who want to rebel in some way, its because the strict belief system offers an out of sorts. There are no jobs or affordable food or homes all the while the gov't officials live like kings while completely turning their back on the problems of the people so maybe the afterlife will be better. Right? No hope in life means only hope in death. Sucks.

Well perhaps some are finally saying they want a better life in the living world, which is why some want a new government without having to resort to sharia law. Ultimately though it looks like Egypt is going to end up with a junta. Mean while the places mentioned usch as in the Middle East and Africa will still have the same issue of the crooked governments getting rich selling off the whole nation's wealth to places like China, Europe, North America and other corporate interests while those who work to extract the wealth out of the ground get exactly jack and shit. People in general are getting more will informed, and less willing to take that kind of shit and the shit is both greedy secular governments as well as oppressive theological ones where a few doushe bags call all the shots and pocket all the cash.

OMG I owe you a drink for that(or several) and you owe me a new keyboard!

your under the assumption that the MB represents and speaks for all of Egypt. thats like saying Michelle Bachman speaks for all Americans.

Your typically idiotic assumptions that I said the MB speaks for all of these protesters is laughable at best. No where did I suggest such a thing. I did, however, say and suggest that I feel there is an underlying notion that the MB is going to use these people to gain the much needed traction to become a driving force once again. Call them the useful idiots. I am sorry you can not think outside your jaded leftist views once in awhile. I feel great pity for you. Today's events in and around Tahrir square are going very well. Lets hope they stay that way. God velvet seek help for your hatred.

Call them the useful idiots.

That's lame above and beyond the typical Fox News talking points we're used to hearing.

/rollseyes

I did, however, say and suggest that I feel there is an underlying notion that the MB is going to use these people to gain the much needed traction to become a driving force once again.

You do realize the Muslim Brotherhood is predominately a charitable works organization that has more in common with say, Opus Dei or Mor(m)on missionaries, than their more politically active splinter groups like Hamas? MB representation in an Egyptian government does not immediately lead to jihad. It's a predominate Muslim country. You would expect a few Muslims in their representation.

Egypt is one of the more religiously diverse and secular societies in the middle east. I'd be more worried about Saudi Arabia, who in general, WANT Iran to have nuclear weapons and expect the Hidden Imam any day now. We don't seem to be terrified of Jordan or Turkey, which are much more demographically comparable.

Of course, probably none of us would even think to mention the Muslim Brotherhood (or even have heard of them) if certain talking heads here weren't desperate for a bogeyman to justify their opposition to Democracy.

Yes yes that's right.. Just because I don't follow lock step in the path of the righteous left I must have dun gained my smarts by fox news.. Never mind the fact I took more then a few various history courses throughout college because I enjoy it. I'm no Sanchek or Malse, but I am familiar with what I speak.

You do realize the Muslim Brotherhood is predominately a charitable works organization that has more in common with say, Opus Dei or Mor(m)on missionaries, than their more politically active splinter groups like Hamas? MB representation in an Egyptian government does not immediately lead to jihad. It's a predominate Muslim country. You would expect a few Muslims in their representation.

Right... And not one cent donated to CAIR ever ended up in terrorists hands.

In today's update some meathead tried to knock off the new VP... This wont help their cause.... could bring aa world of hurt down on their head.

Just because I don't follow lock step in the path of the righteous left

I COULD comment, but i will refrain because that along speaks volumes!

Right... And not one cent donated to CAIR ever ended up in terrorists hands.

The US government has sent more money to islamic terror groups, much less terror groups in general, than has been washes through the MB. You have no point here.

The US government has sent more money to islamic terror groups, much less terror groups in general, than has been washes through the MB. You have no point here.

omg you fool.... Enjoy your kool-aide. /laugh

That's why you're my favorite troll :)

Let the Chinese and Russians deal with the outcome. The more we can get off the the mid eastern tit. The better the US will be in our prius's and homes with solar paneled water heaters, sipping lemonade to stay cool on a windless rolling blackout afternoon as the windmills spin aimlessly on the horizon.

This is how you successfully revolt!

http://a7.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc6/167271_139196512809722_100001581216382_279412_3580 0_n.jpg

http://a2.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash1/hs794.ash1/168471_139195336143173_100001581216382_279391_3764 843_n.jpg

http://a5.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash1/166839_139196426143064_100001581216382_279411_7422 764_n.jpg

From a dictatorial, autocratic, meglamania point of view: Worst. Army. Ever.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/02/09/egypt.muslim.brotherhood/index.html?hpt=C1

For Osgillath's reading pleasure.

Enjoy...


http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=207415

Enjoy...


http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=207415


If I posted an article from Iran's "Press T.V." would you believe it?

... I didn't think so

And I should take CNN as a credible news source? I don't think so...

Admit it Osg, you're gay for Anderson Cooper.

In other non-CNN new we're now going into the 17th day of this and apparently a lot of people are going on strike.

Heard through the grapevine today that 3 days ago the 60 Minutes crew was abducted by the Egyptian military. The crew was split up from each other, had their heads covered in a black hood, driven around the city for what they described as hours, finally brought back to an alley near their hotel (where they were picked up) and made to kneel down (heads still covered) as a member of the military prodded them with his gun and pulled the trigger ... of the gun that wasn't loaded.

Apparently they got back this morning and are all pretty fucked up. Have a friend taking their gear with him back to Cairo today to finish their story.

I don't even think Iran or Iraq would have dared to treat the foreign press in such a manner, though maybe they did and I was ignorant to it.

Are you sure it was the military and not the "secret" or regular police?

Not sure tbh, heard it second hand. I'm covering the guy here who is covering the guy there. The 60 min staff shooter's name is Don Lee, imagine there may be stories on the net soonish.

The day after Egypt's new VP blamed unrest on foreign news organizations' presentation of Egypt, many journalists from different organizations were assaulted, abducted, or arrested. I heard a list of about a dozen. Today, the VP made the same pronouncement...

Yes, Mubarak basically "I'll transfer some powers to VP, but as for me stepping down go fuck yourself". Is this gonna get ugly?

Looks they are going to start marching on Presidential palace now. the army might getting ready to step in and forcefully remove him soon. seems to be alot of conflicting statements from the army.

Gonna see a Tiananmen square style beat down?

Well I always wanted to see the pyramids...

And he's out. Military taking over for the time being. Could be great, could be a total mess.

I wonder what country will be next.

Yemen, perhaps. I think Nigeria is having elections soon. Plenty of options!

Its funny, when we watched the turmoil in Iran the Egyptian people commented how they wished they could organize like that. Two years later I imagine the Iranian people wished they could have gone further.

I have to think Iran will see a change in leadership in the next decade.

It doesn't make much sense to compare Egypt and Iran. Economically, they're as different as the US and Cuba.

Thats a very good point San. Iran faces no where near the dire straits thats facing teh other nations there. never thought id see the ME swinging in the direction it currently is and find it exciting.
I'm not worried about the MB and extremism taking control in Egypt. this a much more modernized and educated populace who want a true democracy and not a "Islamic Caliphate"

BTW Glen Beck is a most amazing guy, just when you thought he couldnt get any more of his rocker than he already is he'll completely suprise you.

I saw a great docu on this uprising. I think on Al Jazeera English. The leader of this youth movement was directly trained by the guy who started and lead the Otpor movement in Serbia against Melosavic.

I'll have to look that up sounds cool. that's why I'm holding out hope on this. these folks do not want to trade one oppressor for another.

And it seems Algeria is in on it now.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/02/12/algeria.protest/index.html

The one thing to take from all of this as far as United States foriegn policy is concerned is that....

Its not our business.

Hopefully we don't try to decide what governments these nations are supposed to have based upon our own agenda as opposed to allowing them to decide what they as Egyptians decide is best for themselves. Ok so Egpyt got rid of their 30 year incumbent dictator finally. If another dictator moves in but is more open to bringing the country up as a whole and the people support it, then we can't say jack in protest. Sure we want democracy but in a tribal society such as the ME that is almost a pipe dream. It's great to see the populous stand up for themselves, but it was them that did it and not our troops so they have earned the right to form a government they are comfortable with, removed from outside meddling.

Considering we've been supporting Mubarak for precisely those sort of reasons this whole time, I'm not sure how you could expect anything else.

The key word in Lumus' post is pipe. The US doesn't want to over-commit to any one strategy because we want to be on good terms with whoever comes out on top. Egypt is too important a resource, in more ways than one, to alienate the new leader. In this divorce, we're trying not to back either spouse too much.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,745526,00.html

In a year everyone will have forgotten about the MB and not one blowhard will apologize for his moronic pronouncements being completely wrong. That Spiegel article was great in that it illustrates the MB's limited reach -- that guy only has 60 million "readers" worldwide and the majority of them are just shopping for a religious rationalization for what they already want to do.

He's like Limbaugh, just in better shape and less of a dick with more listeners.

Straw polling shows that potential elections would likely result in 1-3% of the parliament seats going to MB candidates. Versus say the US, where religious nutcases have about half of them.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12523669

- Libya has absolutely exploded. This could well be the downfall of the more infamous Dictator in the Muslim world. This domino effect is unreal. We could be seeing the biggest political changes to the Arab region in half a century.

'he situation in Libya is becoming increasingly confused and chaotic. There are several reports that Col Gaddafi has now left Tripoli, possibly for his hometown of Sirt or his desert base of Sabha.

In Tripoli itself, elements of the security forces are still on the streets, though the violence seems to be increasingly random.

During the night, there were more brutal attacks on demonstrators who had gathered, after rumours spread that Col Gaddafi had fled the country.

Hour by hour, there are reports of more defections. Almost all major tribal leaders seem to have joined the opposition, as well as important religious leaders and several senior Libyan ambassadors.

The east of the country is already almost entirely out of the hands of the government. Col Gaddafi's hold on power is becoming weaker by the hour.'

It's really quite amazing to watch. Libyan protesters are allegedly being shot from the air, and Gaddafi has said he'll die a martyr by the end of it.

"Okay," the rest of the world is reported to have said.

Gaddafi has finally gone off the deep end. Its doubtful his military structure will hold if he keeps on ordering unarmed civilians to be fired on with live rounds. He is the only one wanting a civil war.

CNN is trying to keep this up to date as everything progresses:

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/02/22/mideast.africa.unrest/index.html?hpt=T2

Its amazing that the events in one country has now spread to a dozen.

It makes me laugh. To consider what topics we were discussing when I first began posting here pre-9/11, and to be now discussing the dissolution of arab-wide dictatorships, seems surreal.

Sometimes events move so slow as to not notice history in the making. But sometimes you can consider them and feel like you've lived through momentous events.

My wife HATES watching the news. She absolutely can't stand it, and she hates having our 6 year old watch it because it's always so depressing and bloody. That being said, she's actively watched tons of coverage on all of this with me.

For once I've told her we're watching history in the making and a new day for this world, and she's actually taken interest.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/markmardell/2011/03/camerons_no-fly_zone_fervour_n.html

- Interesting piece on Libya, re being Europe's time to perhaps step-up, as opposed to waiting on the US teat. Will be interesting to see where this one is heading...

We (The world, UN, NATO or some fucking body) need to step up soon and intervene, and I'm not talking about just sanctions, I mean some foot to ass.

No action just bickering... Status quo.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12687607

-Interesting article, from our perspective. Unfortunately, while France and Britain, and to some extent Germany, were pushing for a no-fly zone at the EU and Nato meetings on Friday, the only thing to have come out of it are tougher sanctions. At the rate Gaddafi is advancing, there won't be much of a rebel movement to support if Europe or UN/Nato do not act soon.

I have a sinking feeling in my stomach that this will be allowed to continue with nothing more than finger wagging, and in a year or two we'll find the Libyan desert full of mass graves.

Do we ever learn?!

Stetched thin, countrys are broke, cant do this for free......

China should take care of it.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12723554

- Check that out for an endorsement!

I think we may have missed the window on being able to put a positive spin on actually doing something to Libya. Apparently a large part of the problem for the rebels is that Gaddafi controls all or the majority of the helicopter gunships, which are tearing up otherwise entrenched positions; the no-fly sanction probably won't be able to do much about those given they're frequently operating well below long range radar.

I find it pretty sad and amusing that basically everything we lied about Iraq is true about Libya, and yet we do nothing. Even international efforts to destroy the loyalist air force would be enough, but we do nothing knowing it would be an Arab-aligned nation instead of our puppet in control afterwards.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-12770467

- Looks like military intervention is imminent, but will there be anything left to defend and protect by the time the UN resolution is passed?

Breaking news, the UN agreed to adopt a no-fly zone resolution. The next few days will be interesting. I believe France and the UK will be leading the way on this.

Seems the two things which pushed it through was a much pumped-up US encouragement where it had first been hesitant, and the French foreign minister appearing in person which very much indicated that Russia and China would likely abstain, as opposed to blocking any resolution.

Reports say up to 5 Arab airforces could be taking part, and Anglo-French planes could be in the skies by the morning.

Interesting times, hope for very little collateral damage.

What's funny is that the French could be shooting down French built Mirage planes within hours.

Anywho, Cabinet meeting and Commons statement today hopefully outlining the execution of this resolution. It appears the US is taking a back seat at first and then contributing militarily as the operation gets up and running.

Hmm, Anglo-French led military operations in North Africa, how reminiscent of Suez in 1956.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-12784729

- UK Typhoon and Tornado jets being deployed as we speak.

Well blimey, cessation of hostilities and all military operations announced by Libya.

Go diplomacy with an iron fist! I don't think this will stop the creation of a no-fly zone, but I think a lot is going to hang on tomorrow's meeting in Paris.

Gaddafi loyalists are still shelling Musaratta and nearby positions from reports, although they may have moved away from benghazi.

Yep, no one seems to be 'buying' the supposed ceasefire. I predict RAF Tornados and French jets over Libya tonight, certainly by morning before the summit in Paris.

If Benghazi falls before we can act, that would be a goddamn nightmare.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12793919

- I think we'll see the no-fly zone launched by tonight. It is clear Gadaffi is attempting to take the remaining rebel towns before we can intervene, to create as kind of stalemate. But the added clauses in Obama's ultimatum, that he must withdraw from towns he already occupies, makes it inevitable that we'll have to strike the buggers out and back into the west of the country.

Today is going to be very, very interesting.

On one hand, I really hope this ends up being 99% the euro part of NATO/UN doing the dirty work. But on the other, since it's North Africa I'll at least get extra pay for my language specialty this time.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12795971

- Viva la France!!!

Supposedly British and Canadian planes will lead the actual strikes, but think of the fear struck into Gadaffi's heart when one of those French jets screamed overhead.

I very much want this to be a EU led operation, so it's a great shame that a US commander was appointed to lead, in many respects. Especially as the resolution was put on the table, and pushed, by Britain and France. Oh well, not to complain, you Yanks came around in the end :P

I'm glued to the news right now.

Scrap that, first French airstrike about 15 minutes ago.

Just listened to Clinton's speech; seems a real sense of international unity on this. Has the Libya crisis given the UN a new lease of life?

Where the fuck is everyone on this forum?!

Can you keep it down Halo? I'm trying to listen to Charlie Sheen over here.


(Actually glued to the news as well...)

I just hope that this isn't too little, too late.

I think we were very much behind this all the time but did not want this to appear to be another "American" action in the muslim world.

Was funny, was watching some moron on the news earlier spouting off about how this will never work with out the U.S. taking the lead role as we are the only one's capable of striking at ground targets and able to spot AA positions and such. I thought gawd your dumb. good to see it taking about 2 hours to prove it.

Can you keep it down Halo? I'm trying to listen to Charlie Sheen over here.

ROFL!!

Perhaps Sheen can find employment in the Libyan film-making industry? He'd play a good Gadaffi, I think.

While I thought it was too little, too late, I now think we perhaps just made it in time, by perhaps mere hours. As Benghazi still stands, so does the rebellion. I have a feeling the psychological effect of Western jets in the sky have shattered Libyan morale. Even if it is for a moment, long enough for the operation to get fully going, then that may be enough - whatever the difficulties that lay ahead.

I just hope that this isn't too little, too late.

My feelings exactly, been watching this one the news as I can, Wife scored a pizza party/advertising thing from Digiorno, so I've got pizza and wings while I watch ;)

LMAO, 110 Tomahawks! you think Kadaffyduck is having an "Oh Shit!" moment??

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12796972

- ROFL! My thoughts exactly. 110 missles in such a short time, and confirmation from the Ministry of Defence has just confirmed British subs are firing from off the coast too. British, French and Canadian jets are currently in action against military bases and installations, while the US is providing high-tec specialist support, such as satellite intellignece, etc, while moving a Carrier, along with a French one, to enforce a naval blockade.

Supposedly 'Operating Odyssey Dawn' has its headquarters at a US base in Germany. Odd, I thought HQ would be established nearer, in Italy or Spain. I guess something as high-tech as this needs the German bases for logistical and satellite reasons.

Unconfirmed reports of a French jet having been downed, but this has just been denied by France.

Maybe confused it with the rebel jet that was downed before?

Blimey, Royal Air Force Tornado GR4 fast jets flew from the UK and back to carry out their strikes, a total of 3,000 miles, the longest such mission since the Falklands War. Why on earth didn't we use our Cyprus or Gibraltar base? Seems rather an odd waste of fuel.

Perhaps just a assurance (to Libyan government) hat they can strike from the UK as well?

It was a time thing, I believe. Supposedly the Jets are being moved to Cyprus and Italy shortly.

Just heard the Arab League are now criticizing the strikes, saying it is not what they thought imposing a no-fly zone would be. Can you believe that?

Blimey, Royal Air Force Tornado GR4 fast jets flew from the UK and back to carry out their strikes, a total of 3,000 miles, the longest such mission since the Falklands War. Why on earth didn't we use our Cyprus or Gibraltar base? Seems rather an odd waste of fuel.

You should see the routes the USAF flies B2s on. They were bombing Iraq from the Midwest.

Just heard the Arab League are now criticizing the strikes, saying it is not what they thought imposing a no-fly zone would be. Can you believe that?

Only Muslims/Arabs/Libyians are allowed to kill other Muslims/Arabs/Libyians. There is a memo somewhere about it.

Can you keep it down Halo? I'm trying to listen to Charlie Sheen over here.


(Actually glued to the news as well...)

Wife and I are going to see Charlie Sheen on April 6th haha.

Where the fuck is everyone on this forum?!



Watching basketball OMG!

And NCAA DIV 1 Wrestling Championships.

And NCAA DIV 1 Wrestling Championships.


That guy from ASU was amazing.

Yea, to be able to Wrestle at that level of competition and then beat the Champ from last year in the finals is unreal.

Jordan Burroughs from Nebraska was awesome to watch, I met him when they came to Wisconsin to wrestle this last season, Wisconsin forfieted to him due to injury.

Then there was Bubba Jenkins who used to wrestle for Penn State, left because he didnt get a long with the coaching staff..Cael Sanderson (wrestling god), then pinned Penn States final qualifer,...that was sweet revenge if you are Jenkins.

Pretty exciting finals this year.

I feel like we've gone off topic a bit.

F-15 jet destroyed, 100+ cruise missiles used, shit who is paying for this????

We are... but if we didn't then Freedom and Justice would be paying instead!

Britain has just slashed its military budget and is in the midst of its biggest public expenditure cut since the 1940s, yet it costs us £500,000 everytime we shoot a tomahawk. Though I support the military operation, there is some irony in that. Hopefully the Gov rethink the defence cuts and let us keep at least our Nimrod fleet, if not the Harrier Jet fleet too. I doubt it though.

2 brand new aircraft carriers with no aircraft until 2020!!

F-15 jet destroyed, 100+ cruise missiles used, shit who is paying for this????

This stuff was already bought and paid for years ago. The difference between using the hardware and manpower and not using it in an operation like this is not so significant. Pilots, sailers and airmen are going to be paid regardless. The cruise missles were in the magazines before Libya even got uppity. Planes are going to be flown and fuel burned, if not for this than for training. Chances are the humanitarian efforts in Japan and evacuating our bases there (with the possibility of closing them forever) will far FAR surpass any spending in Libya and yet you won't find anyone crying poorhouse on that. Our people in Washington are calous, shallow and petty but they pick their battles well. Nitpicking the President on this is more about politics and very little about money.

It gets spendy though if you actually put boots on the ground, have to build logistics networks, facilities, etc. So really it is a bit premature for the poorhouse cries. Save them for when this is still going on weeks, months or years from now. In the meantime its money we were going to spend anyway so perhaps we can write it off as a really good training mission with a heck of a good return if Libya and the world gets to rid itself of a thorn in its side.

Problem is, they need to be replaced, your missing that part. Sure its paid for, but now it will be paid for again when they reload the empty gaps. As far as training missions, we have had one 10 year long training mission for this country already at war, in two countrys. Training isn't needed.


I just went through a month long ordeal in Wisconsin listening to people bitch about what teachers make, how come they get health benefits, blah blah blah,.,..OMG do you know how much this costs the tax payers?

but then the same group will start chest thumping and thinking its cool to simply throw hundreds of millions at a problem...well quite frankly...isn't our problem.

Someone in the powers that be must have felt that doing nothing was going to be more costly then doing something. Money comes in all forms. There is also moral and political capital, which can sometimes be more valuable than dollars and cents.

Oh come on. Where were we during Egypt? Why have we ignored what's happening in Bahrain? In the past, why ignore Darfur and Rwanda for Iraq?

It's childish for us to pretend that some countries are worthy of "humanitarian" intervention and others aren't, when the ones that are just happen to have petroleum in the ground. As someone who profits from and thoroughly enjoys the absurd relative luxury that cheap oil and an oil-denominated dollar affords, I ultimately am not hypocritic enough to oppose our policy on these issues. Bush is the same as Obama is the same as any President that wants the American status quo to limp along a little farther.

I don't delude myself with humanitarian fantasies when we do help overthrow unfriendly dictators that control oil though.

Half of Baharain, which can almost fit on a postage stamp, is our naval base. We intervene just by...being there. All we have to do is threaten to:

A) Leave and take all our money with us.
B) Unleash the occupants of the base.

Libya doesn't do much as far is supply the USA oil nor do they have much impact on the global price. Its more like we asked our friends the Brits, the French and the Germans to lend us a hand in other affairs and now they were more proactive this round than we were. We owed them a favor. The called us on it. What were we supposed to say, honestly? " Sorry Britian, we can't help you remove the man from power that is responsible for bombing one of OUR jumbo jets over YOUR soil because Joe Q Barstool feels that its a bad means of spending tax dollars that won't result in lower gas prices even though we asked you to send troops to Iraq on our little quest to slay the Hussain family? Heh, sorry but we have to give too. We can only take so much.

Plus, Egypt was more about white collar crime and plus Egypt sucked our teet. All we had to do was take the boobie away and ole' Mubarak caved. Col. Gadaffi has really never been on our Christmas card mailing list. Thus he could tell us to get fucked and by rights he could. Nothing to lose?

I think you're incorrect there, San. The US didn't want to become involved; they were prepared to ignore Libya just like elsewhere. They were very much dragged into this by Europe, more specifically Britain and France. Why? Well for one, certain EU members states have been pushing for an increased EU rapid reaction force to justify the defence contributions made by member states. Secondly, Libyan repression was quite unlike anything so far, with the use of airpower, mechanized forces, etc. Remember, the army were not with the regime in Egypt, or Tripoli. There was a constant dialogue with the Government gradually conceding until it fell (remember the 'I'll step down in...' speeches each regime gave until they finall toppled themselves?) after an initial stubborn show. Libya was unique in its use of the armed forces (well, as of this week we're seeing a similar pattern emerging in Bahrain). Thirdly, such volatile military use posed an unstable threat on Europe's southern flank. Remember, we didn't stand for this in the Balkans, when the EU was far less united; over a decade later with a larger EU military force and greater inter-state integration and cohesion (an EU Foreign Minister, for one), we're certainly not going to put up with it now. This was very much a European-led initiative, which leads to the fourth point: Sarkozy is up for re-election and he is slumped third in opinion polls. What do leaders do when they're sagging at home? Act bold abroad, which is why Sarkozy is playing World Leader above France's usual diplomatic punch, for he has to try something otherwise next year we'll see a Far Right Government in Paris. And for Cameron, well the Tories have always liked a good foreign conflict, and Cameron loves taking central stage on the international platform, and I think the Minister for Defence has been itching to justify his argument that defence cuts in this day and age is a dangerous step.

So action has its origins in Europe, but more specifically, in domestic European politics. The US has dragged its heels and put the Eurocentric initiative in jeaporady more than once. When Cameron brought up a No-Fly zone in the Commons three weeks ago, America almost denounced it by calling it unrealistic and logistically doubtful without the use of ground troops. This very much left Cameron and the Tories under attack in the House and jeered as having their feet cut out from under them by America. Not until the Thursday, the day before the UN resolution, did America swing behind this, and swing behind with force, to give it enough force to neutralise the usual opposition and carry it with enough realism to make it happen.

I don't think it's as simplistic as 'US want oil, US get oil' view that has reigned for a long time. Besides, waging war on an oil-producing state does nothing but push oil prices up and make production unstable. The no-fly zone has produced a military stalemate, and the exodus of foreign workers has brought Libya's oil production to a standstill. How do you think the US was planning on benefiting from this? Unless you believe that ground troops will follow shortly and production will be brought under a democratic, Western-friendly regime. And I just don't believe that's going to happen.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12776418

'Nato member states will meet again in Brussels later on Thursday, after a third day of negotiations failed to agree on who will direct the military operation in Libya when the US relinquishes control. France is still resisting pressure to place Nato in full command. David Schenker, who directs the programme on Arab politics at the Washington Institute, has told the BBC: "It's an odd dynamic. You have the French trying to set up an unprecedented war council, including the input of the Arab countries. I think that you will hear a lot of complaints from the US Congress about chain of command, about whether this is Nato, whether we should be part of this."'

- Oh, and if NATO does not take over, as it seems clear, and there is some Anglo-French led war council, there certainly will not be troops on the ground because: Britain is spending £10bn a year in Afghanistan on its 10,000 troops and has no money left for another ground war, and the French Parliament will never allow it. Will be interesting to see how the NATO talks pan out over the next day or two. It's imperative that the US is allowed to transition from leader to equal-partner soon otherwise the no-fly zone will become increasingly unpopular as the operation continues.

I was all for support in this action, which was packaged to the American people. That support quickly turned into the major contributor of Fighter jet runs (over 150+ missions to something like 20 from Euro) missiles 150 to 4 from the Euros. Sick being front runner, China loans us money for this shit that we'll never repay.

This isn't a dig at our Euro pal's either, its more about the US wanting to push its chest out farther than the rest. I think France and Britian could did well with a little back up is all.

I agree. Going in to this, it was widely believed that the US would give major logistical and intelligence support, using their command and control ships, their satellite assets, and regional logistical centres. Any idea that the US was not leading the operation was dispelled rather early in the first day.

Saying that, where did you get those stats from, Ibudin? I know our Trident sub has been firing a shit load of missles this week, and with our Tornado's now rebased in Cyprus and South Italy I heard we had ramped up our jet runs a considerable amount.

Cheers.

William Hague said in the House today that Britain had flown 59 jet runs since operations began. Perhaps those stats are old, Ibudin?

World News Tonight... last night.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12856665

- And into the hands of NATO it goes.

Oil is a fungible commodity. It's not that we'd help because we think we're going to park a tanker off Libya's shore and insert a straw. We all need stability in the oil market though, France and the UK included.

The rising energy costs we're seeing this year already threaten to derail our (world) economic recovery. When Gaddafi's actions cut Libya's oil production 25%, that's about the same time our rhetoric started heating up.

Global demand is already outstripping supply. Even though Libya is a small player compared to the Saudis, small disruptions in supply compound to have large effects on the global economy.

So, we're (the whole coalition) probably less worried that a pro-Western regime be installed than we are that any stable regime be installed. Even if they won't sell to us, they'll sell to someone, and that works to lower energy costs worldwide.

I do agree with your point about Sarkozy also wanting to pull a Dubya though.

I of course agree about the instability, but why support a no-fly zone if your primary motive is stability of the oil-producing regime? A no-fly zone doesn't achieve that, it only hinders the military capabilities of the current regime while protecting disruptive rebel elements. If oil were consideration Numero One, then the US and its allies wouldn't be shrinking back so violently from any thought of ground troops.

What we have right now is a stalemate, and perhaps the complete ruin of the Libyan oil industry at the present time.

At this point, with Libya's oil production already down and Gaddafi having intimated that he might torch wells if he's driven out, worrying about short-term production is probably on the back burner. If neutralizing Gaddafi's air power helps empower his opposition without us putting boots on the ground, that's going to result in long-term stability about as effectively as anything short of occupation.

So reading through this, why isn't there a focus on who's coordinating all the friction in the ME. I keep trying to find a thread to prove that all these sudden uprisings (Syria,Egypt,Libya,etc) aren't just ...random.

Fuck Libya....I'm sorry we turned a blind eye to that bs for ...well decades due to what...oil/gold?

I was part of the action that struck Libya in the 80's and have always wondered why we stopped.

Too many fucking wars are fought with an eye to appeasing the allmighty PR machine.

Fight a war to win, leave scars that make you afraid to fight...leave scars that make folks afraid to act the fool.....that is all.

So reading through this, why isn't there a focus on who's coordinating all the friction in the ME. I keep trying to find a thread to prove that all these sudden uprisings (Syria,Egypt,Libya,etc) aren't just ...random.

Fuck Libya....I'm sorry we turned a blind eye to that bs for ...well decades due to what...oil/gold?

I was part of the action that struck Libya in the 80's and have always wondered why we stopped.

Too many fucking wars are fought with an eye to appeasing the allmighty PR machine.

Fight a war to win, leave scars that make you afraid to fight...leave scars that make folks afraid to act the fool.....that is all.

If you were born anywhere other then the western world you might be one of those civilians that loses everything when America "leaves scars"

It's easy to talk tough when your children will never need to worry about tanks rolling through Utah!