http://i162.photobucket.com/albums/t257/evanluerding/electoralmap.jpg

This was taken from pollster.com. Make your predictions!



As it sits now, Obama has 259 strong states, to McCain's 123. Obama has 52 lean Dem, to McCain's 19 lean Repub.

I think some of the leaning states are going to be close. I'm not sure if Obama will actually manage to pull off Ohio or VA, despite what the polls say today. Nevada and Ohio are also kinda iffy. I'm also not sure if I would include Pennsylvania in the 'Strong Dem' category at this point.

Out of the swing states, I think Obama has a good chance to pick up some EVs. If you look at this map and consider how many of these states Bush won in 2004 compared to Kerry, you will quickly see how deep of a hole McCain is currently in.

Obama takes:
Missouri
North Carolina (Going to be close, but the Senate campaign will have an effect)
Indiana

McCain takes:
Florida (Going to be close as always)
Montana
North Dakota
Georgia


Based on this map and what they define as swing states (although I'd argue that there could be a couple more taken from 'leans Dem', Obama wins by quite a large margin.

348 - 190 (Minus 25-30 for Obama for Penn, VA, or other 'swing states' that he'll undoubtedly lose. Just didn't feel like going through the map and altering what Pollster.com claims are 'lean' and 'swing' states. =P )

Oh, and let's have a hearty laugh over the fact that McCain is only up 6 points, barely outside the margin of error, in his own home state. ;)

353 Obama to 185 McCain.

Obama:
Wins North Carolina (Like Ive said would happen since May). Penn turns out to have been a lost cause for McCain as Obama wins by 7. Virginia turns blue. Obama wins Florida by 8 due mostly to his media saturation of 30 second commercials, the strength of the Jewish vote and the splitting of the Cuban vote.
The "Western Strategy" pays off big time as Obama takes Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. McCain holds onto Arizona by 2 points.

McCain:
McCain concedes at 7pm.
Palin freaks out and knocks McCain off the stage, vowing to fight on.
McCain is able to hold onto Missouri, but that is the only close call he survives.

313 Obama, 225 McCain

i do think Obama will take Florida. I drive by one of the early voting places, and its usually packed with obvious Obama supporters.

Which for Polk Country is a real testament, in a very rural high percentage white county.

I'm not sure why people think Florida will be such a shocker, depending on who you believe it should have gone Democrat in 2000 and 2004 and was certainly pretty close no matter what.