View Full Version : Hezbollah Has Their War
Rover
05-08-2008, 12:58 PM
They got what they seemed to want (http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/05/08/lebanon.hezbollah/index.html).
Taleren Bloodsong
05-08-2008, 01:00 PM
I was about to post this too, I'll be interested in seeing how this discussion evolves when I get back from lunch.
Sanchek
05-08-2008, 01:04 PM
Are private telecom networks illegal in Lebanon normally?
Rover
05-08-2008, 01:04 PM
It appears it's between Hezbollah(Shiites), vs the Sunnis and Lebanese Government.
Jedd Corpse
05-08-2008, 01:05 PM
They got what they seemed to want (http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/05/08/lebanon.hezbollah/index.html).
So the reason this all started was...
The violence erupted shortly after Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said the government's attempts to halt Hezbollah's use of a telecommunications system amounts to "a declaration of open war."
Nasrallah accused the government of trying to make the Beirut airport "a base for the CIA, FBI and the Mossad," the Israeli secret police.
Think what you will of Hezbollah, but its pretty stupid to try and take this away from them when you know it will incite a response.
Rover
05-08-2008, 01:06 PM
Are private telecom networks illegal in Lebanon normally?
Not sure, but I think the Hezbollah network is more than just a "telephone network" it definately has military uses for the group.
Jedd Corpse
05-08-2008, 01:07 PM
This whole Sunni vs Shiite shit is getting so ridiculous... I am so fed up with Religion!
Jedd Corpse
05-08-2008, 01:08 PM
Here is the news from the Iranian side.
'Siniora fighting on Israel side'
Thu, 08 May 2008 20:12:29
Hezbollah Secretary General, Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah
Hezbollah's Secretary General says Lebanon's crisis could only be solved if the government agreed to resume the national dialogue.
"We are ready for dialogue but I have two things to say: The government's illegal decisions must be rescinded and (the March 14) must respond to (Parliament Speaker Nabih) Berri's call for a national dialogue," Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah said on Thursday.
Nasrallah also warned that the Lebanese government's moves against the resistance movement amount to declaration of war on behalf of the United States and Israel.
The cabinet on Tuesday launched a probe into a communications network set up by Hezbollah and sacked the security chief of Beirut Airport over alleged links the movement.
The move sparked nationwide protests and clashes between supporters of Hezbollah and government.
The Hezbollah leader said PM Fuad Siniora's government was seeking to disarm the movement. "We have not used our weapons inside the country but we will use them to defend ourselves," he commented.
Nasrallah meanwhile threatened to cut off Walid Jumblatt's hand if he dared to touch Hezbollah's weapons. "Whoever is going to target us will be targeted by us."
http://www.presstv.com/detail.aspx?id=54792§ionid=351020203
Fierce clashes erupt in Beirut
Thu, 08 May 2008 03:22:35
Fierce armed conflicts have erupted in Beirut between the supporters of the pro-western government and the Hezbollah-led opposition.
The clashes broke out after people staged demonstrations in Beirut to protest Prime Minister Fuad Siniora's government over the ongoing economic and political crisis in the country.
Fierce fighting was underway in the districts of al-Jadidah and al-Fakahani and a group of opposition supporters stormed an office of MP Saad Hariri's al-Mostaqbal (Future) Party in the Ras al-Naba district.
In Ras al-Naba, the two sides targeted each others' positions with rifles and RPG projectiles. Many houses and cars were set ablaze in the battles but there were no immediate reports of casualties.
An internet website quoted opposition sources as saying that the opposition intended to stage a sit-in at Beirut Airport.
Meanwhile, Minister of Communication Marwan Hamadeh accused Hezbollah of seeking to disrupt security in Lebanon.
About 300 passengers were left stranded as all ways to the airport were blocked.
Siniora is reportedly considering a decision to declare a state of emergency in the country.
An opposition source said protests over the country's growing economic problems and the Western-backed government's anti-Hezbollah decisions will continue.
Tensions came to their height after the cabinet ruled against a telecommunications network used by Hezbollah.
The group says the network served the nation against Israeli attacks on civilian areas during the 33-day war in 2006.
http://www.presstv.com/detail.aspx?id=54706§ionid=351020203
Rover
05-08-2008, 01:11 PM
Think what you will of Hezbollah, but its pretty stupid to try and take this away from them when you know it will incite a response.
I agree to a point, however is it really a good thing that one "group" has that much power that they have their own private army to do their bidding if the political winds don't blow their way?
This sure sucks, Lebanon seemed to be getting it together after the civil war of the '70s and '80's.
I do wonder tho how much of Hezbollahs, for lack of a better word "arrogance" has to do with their stopping the Israelis from taking ground in the last big incident there. Could this be kind of a blowback?
Jedd Corpse
05-08-2008, 01:14 PM
I agree to a point, however is it really a good thing that one "group" has that much power that they have their own private army to do their bidding if the political winds don't blow their way?
This sure sucks, Lebanon seemed to be getting it together after the civil war of the '70s and '80's.
I do wonder tho how much of Hezbollahs, for lack of a better word "arrogance" has to do with their stopping the Israelis from taking ground in the las big incident their. Could this be kind of a blowback?
Though I agree with you to a point... Hezbollah's entire charter is revolved around defending Lebanon from Israel. They now claim that forces from within Lebanon are trying to undermine them.
It gets real sticky because Lebanon is pretty evenly split, with many people loyal to Hezbollah as their army, and many others with the Lebanese army.
In the mind of a Hezbollah member, or loyalist, Israel and America are coercing the government, and in their eyes if Hezbollah is weakened from the inside, Israel will destroy them, and do with Lebanon what they wish.
Jedd Corpse
05-08-2008, 01:20 PM
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/world/2008/05/08/bpr.perry.beirut.gunfire.cnn
Sanchek
05-08-2008, 01:27 PM
Jedd, can you read Arabic?
Jedd Corpse
05-08-2008, 01:28 PM
Jedd, can you read Arabic?
No
Sanchek
05-08-2008, 01:29 PM
Wish we knew what was being said in those overlays and the ticker.
Jedd Corpse
05-08-2008, 01:30 PM
Most likely... Fighting breaks out in Lebanon... Hezbollah engages Lebanese army... those news casts are very similar to CNN.
Fandros
05-08-2008, 01:38 PM
It was only a matter of time before Hezbollah trumped up a cause (perhaps legit in this case) to try and increase thier power in Lebanon.
Since the legitimate govt of Lebanon has usually stood against a greater war footing it seemed to be that it would piss of Hezbollah and force their hand at some point.
Rover
05-09-2008, 08:35 AM
It was only a matter of time before Hezbollah trumped up a cause (perhaps legit in this case) to try and increase thier power in Lebanon.
Since the legitimate govt of Lebanon has usually stood against a greater war footing it seemed to be that it would piss of Hezbollah and force their hand at some point.
I think you are correct in this statement, I was thinking about this as Beirut is close to my heart in a way, the problem with Hezbollah is not that they have as one of their agendas to protect Beirut, but that they will completely ignore the democratic process when they don't get their way 100%.
That's what makes them dangerous and bad for the country, as you can see their agenda becomes not to protect Lebanon, but to advance their own agenda and the agenda of the Shiite sect and they will usurp the political process and go straight to guns and killing of their fellow countrymen.
They are not a force that should be allowed to continue as they want, they need to be riegned in.
Fandros
05-09-2008, 10:17 AM
As of this morning CNN reports that Hezbollah is taking over city functions.
Hmmm this has nothing to do with Israel, I think we're looking at the Iranian puppets trying to move on up to the east side.
They finally got a piece of the Rrrroooocckk...
Sorry, Jeffersons took me over for a moment.
Jedd Corpse
05-09-2008, 11:57 AM
As of this morning CNN reports that Hezbollah is taking over city functions.
Hmmm this has nothing to do with Israel, I think we're looking at the Iranian puppets trying to move on up to the east side.
They finally got a piece of the Rrrroooocckk...
Sorry, Jeffersons took me over for a moment.
They have closer ties to Syria, and Syria considers lebanon part of Syria, so any conquest type of actions by Hezbollah should be more attributed to Syria then Iran.
On another note... How much more secure would Lebanon be under a Hezbollah military? Putting aside the details of the take over, Hezbollah has proven much more adept at defending Lebanon then the Lebanese army. The only fear is sectarian violence, and this is where they show what they are really made of. If they take over Beirut, like apparently they are doing, their first actions as the ones in charge will show if they really do deserve being destroyed, or if Lebanon can live with them in charge.
Fandros
05-09-2008, 12:07 PM
I keep reading over and over again that Iran funds Hezbollah?
Regardless, this action by Hezbollah shows that they are more than pure Israelli haters.
They want power for powers sake...
Jedd Corpse
05-09-2008, 12:12 PM
I keep reading over and over again that Iran funds Hezbollah?
Regardless, this action by Hezbollah shows that they are more than pure Israelli haters.
They want power for powers sake...
Iran and Syria both fund Hezbollah.
Depends though Fandros, they claim the reason for this takeover is that the government is hurting their ability to defend the country against Israel. The government took action against them, and in their eyes is making decisions based on Israel's safety.
They may be wrong on many points, but I can see how in their minds it is still to defend against Israel.
It could go either way. I think in the next few weeks we will find out enough to make a final decision on their intent.
edit
This could also be a sign that conflict between Israel and Iran will be starting soon. It is very possible that Iran picked up intelligence that Israel is ready to attack, and gave Hezbollah the green light to take over Lebanon. It makes a very tricky situation for Israel.
Fandros
05-09-2008, 12:19 PM
Iran and Syria both fund Hezbollah.
Depends though Fandros, they claim the reason for this takeover is that the government is hurting their ability to defend the country against Israel. The government took action against them, and in their eyes is making decisions based on Israel's safety.
They may be wrong on many points, but I can see how in their minds it is still to defend against Israel.
It could go either way. I think in the next few weeks we will find out enough to make a final decision on their intent.
edit
This could also be a sign that conflict between Israel and Iran will be starting soon. It is very possible that Iran picked up intelligence that Israel is ready to attack, and gave Hezbollah the green light to take over Lebanon. It makes a very tricky situation for Israel.
I don't know Jedd, it seems just as likely that Iran knows that since they insist on continuing their push for nukes that they're aware of Israel's desire to keep nukes out of that madman's hands. So they're going to use their catspaws once again to try and bog down Israel and buy Iran more time.
Jedd Corpse
05-09-2008, 12:21 PM
I don't know Jedd, it seems just as likely that Iran knows that since they insist on continuing their push for nukes that they're aware of Israel's desire to keep nukes out of that madman's hands. So they're going to use their catspaws once again to try and bog down Israel and buy Iran more time.
Aye, I edited the post to add that possibility
Fandros
05-09-2008, 12:23 PM
Bah!!!
lol
Sanchek
05-09-2008, 12:33 PM
If Israel sees Hezbollah gaining control of Lebanon, will they preemptively strike Lebanon?
Jedd Corpse
05-09-2008, 12:34 PM
Well, with Israel anything is possible... But remember, the attack in 2006 was a huge failure for them. They may decide its not worth it, but who knows.
Fandros
05-09-2008, 12:37 PM
Well, with Israel/Iran anything is possible... But remember, the attack in 2006 was a huge failure for them. They may decide its not worth it, but who knows.
Changed one word ;P
Israel didn't go full bore last time due to respect for the govt of Lebanon.
This time if that's not a consideration it'll be ugly quick.
Bad move by Hezbollah imho, but they do what they're told. It'll be a huge PR mess.
Jedd Corpse
05-09-2008, 12:41 PM
Changed one word ;P
Israel didn't go full bore last time due to respect for the govt of Lebanon.
This time if that's not a consideration it'll be ugly quick.
Bad move by Hezbollah imho, but they do what they're told. It'll be a huge PR mess.
Actually... Israel bombed sites where Hezbollah wasn't even populating. In the last 72 hours of conflict alone, they bombed more then the entire campaign as punishment.
Israel didn't commit as many ground forces as they could have, but their air campaign was disastrous but not just for Hezbollah, which didn't have near as many deaths as the civilian population of Lebanon did.
Jedd Corpse
05-09-2008, 12:45 PM
http://worldnews2005.tripod.com/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/.pond/lebanon_map_july12-28.jpg.w560h792.jpg
Jedd Corpse
05-09-2008, 03:33 PM
According to MSNBC... The Lebanese army in many cases is not engaging Hezbollah.
Some offices were raided by Hezbollah, and then turned over to the Army. According to the reporter on the scene, it almost looked like they were working in conjunction in some cases.
Hezbollah is setting up check points, and giving the Lebanese army positions for them to hold after they have secured the area.
Weird?!
Fandros
05-09-2008, 06:11 PM
Weird by far ;(
Oh the Israel AF is the one AF in the world I give much props to. Highly effective and scary as hell.
Bylimet Spiritwalker
05-09-2008, 07:29 PM
I do think this action has pretty much canceled any further discussion of ceding the Golan Heights back to Syria
Lleauric
05-09-2008, 09:28 PM
Ted dude.. Strange things are afoot at the Circle K.
Jedd Corpse
05-10-2008, 04:32 PM
BEIRUT, Lebanon (CNN) -- Hezbollah militants will leave Beirut's streets in response to the Lebanese army's assuming security in the city, an opposition spokesman said Saturday, but "civil disobedience" will continue.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/05/10/beirut.violence/index.html
Bylimet Spiritwalker
05-10-2008, 06:32 PM
http://www.twincities.com/ci_9211690?IADID=Search-www.twincities.com-www.twincities.com
From today's St. Paul Pioneer Press, this new York Times article may be a bit behind the news curve, according to jedd's CNN link. But, it does give another picture of what has been taking place over there.
Jedd Corpse
05-10-2008, 06:44 PM
Link is not working byl
Bylimet Spiritwalker
05-11-2008, 09:07 AM
Hmmm, I just clicked it and it worked. Weird.
I wonder if person needs to register with St Paul Pioneer Press to see. But, never heard of other links there not working. Maybe it does not like folks on the West Coast. :p
Kanyli
05-11-2008, 11:26 AM
Works for me, might have been a temp thing.
Jedd Corpse
05-13-2008, 05:18 PM
Hezbollah's street fight just a first step
By Mona Alami
BEIRUT - At least 38 people were killed and 30 injured in the recent gun battles pitting opposition Shi'ite Amal and Hezbollah fighters against members of the Sunni Future Movement, which is part of the majority March 14 alliance in government. As the opposition's militia clamped down on government headquarters, the balance of power seems to have been shifted permanently in the Land of the Cedars.
Since the assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri in 2005 - allegedly at the hands of the Syrians - and the subsequent resignation of Shi'ite ministers from government, conflict between the opposition and majority factions has been brewing. The government comprises the Sunni Future Movement (headed by Saad Hariri, son of slain premier Hariri), the Druze Progressive Socialist Party (PSP), the Christian Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb party.
For the past three years, the Syrian- and Iranian-backed opposition has been battling the Western-backed majority, originally over the internationalization of the tribunal for the prosecution of Hariri's killers.
Since the end of the Lebanese civil war in 1990 and the signing of the Taef Accord by all participating parties - which called for the equal division of power among Muslims and Christians and the demilitarization of all militia groups - Hezbollah, under the banner of resistance, has been the only party in Lebanon to keep its military arsenal.
However, with the pullout of Israel from Lebanon in 2000 (with the exception of the Chebaa farms enclave, the rights to which remains the subject of much debate between Lebanon, Syria and Israel), the role of Hezbollah and the legitimacy of its weapons was once again at the forefront of the political scene.
Tensions culminated in violence last Wednesday when protests called against difficult living conditions and high inflation turned into massive riots, with opposition Shi'ite Hezbollah and Amal forces fighting Sunni Future Movement members. The clashes were politically dovetailed on Thursday by a speech by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah denouncing the removal of Brigadier Wafic Shoucair from his post as head of airport security, and the government's investigation into Hezbollah's independent telecommunication network.
Hezbollah's leader ominously called the cabinet's decisions a "declaration of war", and the echoing gunfire in the capital's mazy streets and posh neighborhoods seemed to confirm the announcement.
The Future Movement, clearly ill-prepared and poorly trained for combat, retreated in the face of armed opposition factions that managed to take control of Beirut in less than 48 hours, and surround the residences of Saad Hariri, PSP leader Walid Joumblat and the government building, which remain cordoned off by a protective buffer of Lebanese armed forces.
As the opposition forces advanced in Beirut, they systematically vandalized the property of majority figures and party members. A woman who gave her name only as Maya, a resident in the predominantly PSP area of Karakol Druze, witnessed the trashing of her parking lot by gunmen before the intervention of her neighbor, a Hezbollah member, who also prevented the militia men from entering the building. "It was extremely frightening, they actually intended to storm the building," said the mother of two toddlers.
Odette Alameh, who lives in the vicinity of Saad Hariri's residence, said her building was targeted by gunmen posted on the rooftops of a nearby construction site. The Future TV news offices were burned down by the Syrian Socialist Nationalist Party, which erected flags on the blackened remains of the besieged building.
Ahmad, a resident of the mostly Sunni Ain Mreisseh area, said a neighboring building was stormed at 3:30 am by militia men, allegedly leading to the removal of a Future Movement party member. Inter Press Service was unable, however, to confirm the information. Future Movement member of parliament Ammar Houry's apartment in the affluent Tallet Khayat area was ransacked by opposition gunmen, who, according to neighbors, also searched the building for weapons.
Throughout the violent events, the army's approach has been one of positive neutrality in favor of the opposition. The Lebanese armed forces have refrained from declaring a state of emergency and refused to take part in the clashes, not leaving the government much margin for maneuvering.
"This is nothing short of a new phase in Lebanese politics," said political scientist Amal Saad Ghorayeb, author of Hezbollah: Politics and Religion. "The government's decision [to remove airport security head Shoucair and denounce the party's private communication network] was unprecedented, and de-legitimized the party's right to resist. I do not see, however, the conflict prevailing for more than a few days," she said. "I expect it to come to a quick resolve, due to the obvious disequilibrium in the balance of power."
The political scientist stated that Hezbollah's proven military superiority will pressure the majority into a compromise. "It is inevitable - the government will have to resign," she said. Saad Ghorayeb predicts that an interim consensus government will call for early parliamentary elections, a longstanding demand of the opposition.
As fighting subsides and the opposition asserts its control over the city's western areas, the implications of the events unfolding in Beirut will certainly reach beyond the country's boundaries. "This will lead without a doubt to a drastic reconfiguration of the political order and might pave the way to a revision of the Taef accords, in order to correct the system's imbalances," said Ghorayeb.
http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/JE13Ak02.html
In this stubbornness, the government failed to anticipate the value Hezbollah places on what it believed its key rights. Worse, Defense Minister Elias al-Murr, Interior Minister Hasan al-Sabe and Public Persecutor Said Mirza were tasked to create a team to look into other security violations committed by Hezbollah.
Engineering the escalation was Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, a one-time Nasrallah friend now turned enemy, who knew that within 48 hours the United Nations Security Council was due to discuss resolution 1559, regarding the disarmament of Hezbollah, which has yet to be fully implemented.
Nasrallah angrily replied that "we will cut the arm" of whoever tries to dismantle the arms of Hezbollah, claiming that security networks were weapons, just like missiles and guns. He then reminded that in the past, he would always say that "our weapons will never be used internally", but this time he warned that "weapons will be used to guard weapons".
He was not understating the situation. By the evening of May 7, all hell had broken lose in Beirut.
Hezbollah troops took to the streets of the capital and were confronted by armed men loyal to parliamentary majority leader Saad al-Hariri and Druze leader Jumblatt. Road blocks were set up all over the city, bringing back haunting memories of the 17-year civil war that ended in 1990, and snipers showed up on rooftops.
The Hariri-led March 14 Coalition cried foul, claiming that Hezbollah had launched a coup and taken over the (in the lightening speed of six hours). Parallels were drawn between Hezbollah's behavior in Beirut and the Hamas takeover of Gaza in 2007.
Nasrallah denied a coup was in the making, saying, "Had we wanted a coup, they [government leaders] would have woken up to find themselves in jail, or [thrown) in the sea."
Hezbollah fighters did storm entire neighborhoods of Beirut loyal to Hariri, aided by Amal militiamen loyal to the Shi'ite speaker of parliament, Nabih Berri, an ally of Nasrallah. The poor training and weaponry of the Hariri team was no match for the sophisticated war machine of Hezbollah, which managed to ward off a massive Israeli attack in 2006.
So amateurish were Hariri's men that it almost seemed as if they had no arms at all. They were round up in hours, disarmed and handed over to the Lebanese army. Rather than take control of the districts - to prove that this was not a coup - Hezbollah fighters called up the army, a third party, asking it to take control.
Vandalism did take place, and so did an ugly exchange of words between Hezbollah's team, who are all Shi'ite, and Hariri's men, who are all Sunnis. One of the most telling acts was shutting down all of Hariri's media outlets, which were very active in spreading anti-Hezbollah propaganda, including Future TV, Future News, Orient Radio and Future Newspaper. All of these were taken over by Hezbollah and then handed to the army, yet hoodlums did manage to break into Future TV and set one floor ablaze.
Many saw this as a proxy war between the Saudi Arabia-backed March 14 Coalition and the Iran-backed Hezbollah. Telecommunications Minister Hamadeh said the entire crisis was the doing of Tehran. His boss, Jumblatt, went even further, asking for the expulsion of the Iranian ambassador from Beirut.
Jumblatt's tone changed, however, 48 hours into the confrontation, when the fighting ended in Beirut and shifted to Druze villages overlooking the Lebanese capital. Hezbollah fighters surrounded his palace in Beirut, near the American University of Beirut, but did not invade. It was clear for Jumblatt, one of the United States' main and newfound allies in Lebanon, that it was pointless to resist Hezbollah.
Jumblatt got on the phone with Nabih Berri, the Nasrallah-allied speaker of parliament, and said, "I am a hostage now in my home in Beirut. Tell Sayed Hasan Nasrallah I lost the battle and he wins. So let's sit and talk to reach a compromise. All that I ask is your protection."
Nasrallah and Jumblatt had been good friends and strong allies during the heyday of the Syrian presence in Lebanon. The Druze leader had positioned himself as one of the main protectors of Hezbollah arms throughout the 1990s. A political animal, however, he changed sides when it was clear the Syrians had fallen out with Washington after the Iraq war and he transformed himself into one of the loudest critics of Syrian power in Beirut.
He put his full bet on the Americans, patched up with the George W Bush White House (which he had once accused of staging the September 11, 2001, attacks on New York and Washington) and became an aggressive critic of Nasrallah. In his speech on the eve of hostilities, Nasrallah said that the plan to transform Beirut Airport into a base for the US Central Intelligence Agency, the Federal Bureau of Investigation and Mossad was the brainchild of "the government of Walid Jumblatt".
Intense fighting between Druze forces and Shi'ite militiamen raged on in the villages of Shouf, the towns of Aley and Shuwayfat, raising red sirens throughout Lebanon. This is where heavy fighting had taken place in the civil war - and although the war ended nearly 20 years ago - the wounds have not healed.
Two Hezbollah members were killed in the Druze districts, and another disappeared, prompting Jumblatt to give an urgent press conference, accepting blame for the entire ordeal and calling on his troops to lay down their arms, avoid a sectarian outburst, and transfer order of the districts to the Lebanese army.
Jumblatt added, "I must admit that the Iranians are smart and they knew how to play it in Lebanon. They chose a time when the US is weak in the Middle East and did it."
Calm was restored to Beirut when the government, with as much face-saving as possible, revoked its earlier decisions by transferring the issue of the communication system, and the security commander of Beirut Airport, to the army. Instead of executing the orders Army Commander Michel Suleiman, a neutral third party, declared both null. It is still unclear if the Siniora cabinet will issue a formal apology for its actions, as the Hezbollah-led opposition is requesting.
Regardless, it was a political and military victory for Hezbollah.
The March 14 claims it was a moral victory for itself as well, saying that they had helped prevent a civil war by backing down on their earlier legislation. To date, while fighting continues in the Druze mountains, and has even reached as far north as Tripoli, the government has not resigned. Not even has Interior Minister Hassan al-Sabe, who is a member of March 14.
Rumors circulated in Beirut that Siniora wanted to step down when the fighting was at its peek, but was prevented from doing so by Saudi Arabia. The Saudis, enraged by what was happened in Beirut, realized that Iran - and the Syrians - had taken the upper hand in Beirut.
True, Hezbollah has restored all "occupied" districts to the army, but it is clear they were far superior in power, training, arms and logistics to Saudi Arabia's proxies in Lebanon. Additionally, they have done it once. Nothing prevents them from doing it again at any time the Saudi-backed government tries to dismantle, crush or curb Hezbollah's influence.
When a coup is not a coup
Speaking at the southern village of Bint Jbeil in 2005, Nasrallah once said, "There is talk of disarming the resistance. Any thought of disarming the resistance is pure madness. We do not want to attack anyone. We have never done so. And we will never allow anyone to attack Lebanon. But if anyone, no matter who, even thinks about disarming the resistance, we will fight him like the martyr-seekers in Karbala."
That sums it up. Nasrallah will not allow anybody to touch the arms of Hezbollah and is willing to fight to maintain his status, and that of his party, in the Arab-Israeli conflict. His supporters argue that as a pragmatic leader, and a cunning statesman who excels in psychological warfare, he does not want to rule Beirut.
He is neither interested nor politically able (although it would be easy, in military terms). He realizes that the confessional system of Lebanon is too complicated for such a task, and said it bluntly last Wednesday, "If they told us to come take over, we would say 'no thank you'."
Had he wanted a real coup, he would not have transferred control to the Lebanese army, nor would he have laid down his arms in Beirut. He would have invaded and stormed the homes of Jumblatt and Hariri and arrested both of them, along with Siniora, and set up a new government, to his liking, and to that of Iran. But that is an illogical scenario that would never pass.
What he did last week in Beirut was show his power - flex his muscles - and tell the world, "I am still here. Still in control and still powerful - or as some would say, king - in Lebanese politics."
It was a rude wake-up call to all those who imagined he would never go this far to bring his message to the region and the international community.
http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/JE14Ak03.html
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