I read the transcript of this the other day, but figured it might be too tl;dr. Here's the video of the actual presentation:

http://nielsenhayden.com/makinglight/archives/010186.html

Discuss!

I think he's pretty much on the right track. from my experiance the internet/pc experiance has grown to dominate so much more of my time simply because it's inclusive and active instead of passive and inactive.
The popularity of DvD entertainment I would think is all so evidence in his favor because it allows you to be in control of your content instead of some executives deciding what fare they will provide you.