http://www.aawsat.com/english/news.asp?section=1&id=4722

Should this happen, which I hope it won't, complete and total destruction of Iran would be paramount. Total annihilation. The only answer. Now flame and discuss boys and girls.

*If* it were to come to this, I think the world would discover just how imperialistic the US can be.

People wonder what would bring the draft back, well something like that would be it.

I might even shop at the super Wal-Mart we build over-top whats left of Tehran :)

If that were to happen, I don't belive we would NEED a draft... there would be lines outside armed forces recruiting stations.

People in the United States are pretty laid back and will generally roll with the punches. But... piss us off real bad and you best prepare to get your a$$ kicked.

I think Elmak is correct, if it were to happen, I think a lot of people in the world would find out just how much "redneck" there is in the United States. You know, those boys we keep chained up in the basement and feed them raw meat twice a day?

If that were to happen, I don't belive we would NEED a draft... there would be lines outside armed forces recruiting stations.

People in the United States are pretty laid back and will generally roll with the punches. But... piss us off real bad and you best prepare to get your a$$ kicked.

I think Elmak is correct, if it were to happen, I think a lot of people in the world would find out just how much "redneck" there is in the United States. You know, those boys we keep chained up in the basement and feed them raw meat twice a day?

LOL yeah, Our Fundamentalists can kick your Fundamentalists' Asses....

Interesting...
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/s_449468.html
Iran produces about 4 million barrels of oil a day, most of which it exports. The country imports nearly all of its refined petroleum products -- such as gasoline and diesel fuel -- from Europe and India.

"And I think the thing that would bring the Iranian government and economy to its knees, quite quickly, would not be a cut-off of their exports of unrefined petroleum (but to ban) their imports of refined petroleum products," Woolsey said.

Our gas prices would rise through that sort of leverage, but I doubt there's any sort of pressure tactic we can apply that wouldn't bring about further increase, all things equal.

Best of all, this sort of ban seems outside the ability of Russia and China to object. Those nations might like to take up the refining slack -- no idea if they have the capability or how quickly they could acquire that capability. Good catch.

I think it's safe to say whatever happens will be after the midterms.

Probably, but ohhh the rhetoric. Missiles may not go anywhere, but Iran related pre-election slings and arrows will no doubt be flying.

Still, I wonder if the "Iran threat" is played up enough, inspires the right sort of panic and plays favorably for Republicans, if Bush might not fire a missile or two, at least for show. Given his party's toilet bound ratings, he might just go for broke.

Probably not...but nothing would surprise me at this point.

Thor, that's a scary thought. But what's even worse is that I wouldn't be suprised either and can totally envision it. Sad.

This one time over in Iran. I saw a WMD.

There, now the CIA can invade, and take over Iran just like Iraq and our gas prices will drop. Just like it did when we went into um... Iraq, wait a minute...

Think they will get solid proof this time instead of one of those Farris Buller reports? (I had a friend of a friend who's cousin's uncle, etc saw WMDs in Iran the other day.)

Here's an idea, fall back and protect our boarders. Cease aid to other countries, and live in our own little shell and not help the rest of the world with it's problems. Keep our nose out of their business. That is what many nations want. And when/if other countries want our help, charge 'em as in a percentage of what the we owe them. Reduce the national debt that way.

This 'if you hit me I'm going to beat up your little brother' crap is getting a bit outta hand.

Maybe life from outer space will make contact and they need parking lots for their ships. :devil

/rant off

yeah only trouble with that is that we did that before and WWI and WWII happened. I do like the idea of taxing a percentage of our aide to the receiving country though.

Here's an idea, fall back and protect our boarders. Cease aid to other countries, and live in our own little shell and not help the rest of the world with it's problems. Keep our nose out of their business. That is what many nations want. And when/if other countries want our help, charge 'em as in a percentage of what the we owe them. Reduce the national debt that way.

This 'if you hit me I'm going to beat up your little brother' crap is getting a bit outta hand.

Maybe life from outer space will make contact and they need parking lots for their ships. :devil

/rant off

Great Plan.

Step A: Invent a new domestically produced renewable energy source that allows us to totally independent from foriegn sources.

Step B: Figure out how you are going to dismantle the Trillion Dollar a Year Military Industrial Complex. Find some way to replace 300 Millions jobs a year as we will no longer need Aircraft Carriers, Bombers, Submarines, Missles, Fighters, ect, ect, ect....

Step C: Make sure we have lots and lots of Bricks for that southern wall. As we slash off the greatest mexican import to the United States and the Mexican economy completely crashes. In the wake of anger at the US, and the complete economic desparity, Chavez and Castro backed politicans gain control of the Mexican government.
Oh Look Honey! Communism is alive and well.. and its in our backyard!

Step D: Profit

Here's an idea, fall back and protect our boarders. Cease aid to other countries, and live in our own little shell and not help the rest of the world with it's problems. Keep our nose out of their business.


Unlike you, the people running this country are making money hand over fist under our current policies and thus the idea of domestic focus is "politically impossible" ... meaning most everyone wants it but the politicians.

Um... It was more in jest, hence the sci-fi part. I don't believe we could survive doing something like that. As you said Military is a huge part of the equation. It also doesn't hurt to stop threats to the US before they get here. Can't do that if we stick our heads in the sand. It gets gets a bit boring/old/tiresome that when disaster (you can include war in there if you want) happens around the world what US is there in one form or another and usually taking point on it. And instead of seeing the big picture the world focuses on only the negatives.

Iran produces about 4 million barrels of oil a day, most of which it exports. The country imports nearly all of its refined petroleum products -- such as gasoline and diesel fuel -- from Europe and India.

"And I think the thing that would bring the Iranian government and economy to its knees, quite quickly, would not be a cut-off of their exports of unrefined petroleum (but to ban) their imports of refined petroleum products," Woolsey said. The last time Iran stopped exporting oil was in 1979. At that time, world oil prices only doubled because Saudi Arabia was able to take up almost all the dropped production. This time, Saudi can only pick up about 1/4 of the production that would be dropped when Iran decides to take their ball and go home. The result of an economic sanction/embargo of Iran would be oil hitting $200/barrel within a week, and $10/gallon gasolene in USA within a month.

Joe Sixpack would line up to join the military if Iran attacked the US. But he'd probably start shooting republicans when it costs $500 to fill up the gas tank on his pickemup.

Iran's strongest weapon in this situation is their oil exports. 5% of the world's supply of oil come from their country alone. With other major US suppliers sympathetic to Iran, such as Venezuela. Iran would win a confrontation, because our economy would collapse before Iran's did. That's assuming Iran takes zero military action. How many people could continue to go to work when the gasolene to get to&from work costs more than you earn each day? Do you have public transport where you live? 60% of Americans live without any form of public transport in their communities. When the cost of shipping goods across oceans skyrockets, will walmart and target keep their stores open with no goods on their shelves?

China depends on Iranian oil + natural gas. Is it any wonder that China will use their Security Council veto to prevent any authorization of force against Iran. What are we going to do to China to twist their arm to support us? Threaten to stop selling treasury bonds to them? Threaten to stop importing everything from them? Have you looked at what is in your local stores? It is all made in China. We have no leverage on them at all, other than threatening to commit suicide.

A more serious analysis would take into account the amount of oil shipped out of the Persian Gulf. All of that oil has to pass the Straits of Hormuz, putting every one of those tankers within artillery range of hundreds of miles of mountainous coastline. We pretty much control Iraq and can't stop mortars shelling US positions, what serious person thinks that we're going to automagically control hundreds of miles of mountainous coastline? An Iranian blockade, or threats of blockade, of the Straits of Hormuz would have oil topping $1000/barrel within days. Insurance companies would cancel policies for tankers in the region, and very few companies could self-insure themselves for $100Million losses. Add in a few tankers at the bottom of the sea from missiles, or RPG armed speedboats, or naval mines and the global economy would take a shock that would take years to decades, if ever, to recover from.

People bitch about $3/gallon gas. What are they going to do when it hits $50/gallon?

The insurgency in Iraq is mostly sunni. What happens when the shiites join the insurgency because their fellow coreligionists get attacked? Why, the insurgency in Iraq goes from having 20% of the population supporting it, to having 80% of the population supporting it. The translation, for the slow of thinking, is losing Iraq. Some of the FOBs might survive for a couple weeks with

US top 15 suppliers of crude and refined oil (http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/current/import.html) (the top chart is crude oil only, the bottom chart is crude + natural gas + refined products)
Please note that Iraq is the US's 7th largest supplier of crude oil. Who says we didn't invade them for the oil? Please note that Venezuela is 3rd largest supplier of petroleum products.

By depending so much on cheap oil/gas, we painted ourselves into this corner. Acting all butch about it won't solve anything. The only way out is to get away from our dependance on oil. Getting rid of suburbs will be one of the other steps we'll have to do, as well as eliminating corn as the basis for all our agriculture in the US (see Omnivore's Dilemma for the reasons for this last sentence).

Existing US wells would be reactivated and other domestic resources would get tapped long before prices reached the levels you are talking about.

They aren't economically viable to operate at the moment, but they sure would be when the price of oil increases a bit more.

"Reactivating" them will take months. Most states require you to fill the well with cement when you cease pumping operations. So you'll have to re-drill many of them. Drilling through several hundred feet of concrete and metal piping will be a lot easier than drilling through several thousand feet of rock, but neither of which can be done in a week.

Some folks want to drill in ANWR. Due to the location, drilling equipment can only be moved in during the winter, when the ground is frozen enough to support the weight of trucks. Connecting ANWR to the Alaska pipeline would take years. Estimates place it at 3-6 years before that oil could flow.

We won't be able to make a dent in supply before skyrocketing oil prices drive large amounts of people and companies into bankruptcy.

Right, so yeah might want to check your facts on ANWR, we've come a long way since the 70s when the pipeline was built.

More realistically looking at 2 years before oil would come from ANWR to mainstream, however there is a good deal already flowing from existing pumps on the North Slope, as well as down south.

Don't think the situation is anywhere near as bleak as you'd like it to be.

3 years before meaningful oil flow from ANWR is optimistic. (Half my paternal family works in the oil business, having supervised drilling and well operations in Kazakhstan, New Guinea, and Venezuela. Two years might be feasible, if still overly rosey, with third-world labor and environmental oversight, but not in Alaska)

No idea who Smidget is, or what his overall take on things might be, but his factual points have been pretty spot on.

Shocker there Malse, you backing the story of someone who thinks the world is going in the toilet.

/gasp

Waking up each day without sucking on the business end of a glock must be tough.


Folks, there's nothing new here to see to be honest. Each one of these dire predictions were made in 1979, each excuse for the US to crash, each prediction of impending doom.

Dig a trench for a river, build a bridge and get over it lil ones...life isn't that bad.

Fandros

"Nothing is as dire as the times in which we live."

Google it, it's an original quote by me.

"Reactivating" them will take months. Most states require you to fill the well with cement when you cease pumping operations. So you'll have to re-drill many of them. Drilling through several hundred feet of concrete and metal piping will be a lot easier than drilling through several thousand feet of rock, but neither of which can be done in a week.

Some folks want to drill in ANWR. Due to the location, drilling equipment can only be moved in during the winter, when the ground is frozen enough to support the weight of trucks. Connecting ANWR to the Alaska pipeline would take years. Estimates place it at 3-6 years before that oil could flow.

We won't be able to make a dent in supply before skyrocketing oil prices drive large amounts of people and companies into bankruptcy.

You do realize the US stockpiles a few months worth of oil against just such an emergency, right? In the situation you describe, it would certainly be used. Reactivating capped wells would be the work of weeks, not months, assuming this kind of economic pressure came into play. Developing oil shale is a long term project, but it would certainly be started for future requirements as well.

Driving the US and other industrialized nations into economic disaster would also cripple much of the rest of the world- meaning other oil suppliers would find it to their benefit to take up Iran's slack where they can.

Driving the US and other industrialized nations into economic disaster would also cripple much of the rest of the world- meaning other oil suppliers would find it to their benefit to take up Iran's slack where they can. I think the problem being foreseen is that the "other oil suppliers" are supposedly at max capacity (or close enough)... I don't buy it though.

Refining capacity is what is maxed, not oil production from my understanding.

I could be wrong though...it wouldn't be the first time.

Refining capacity is what is maxed, not oil production from my understanding.

I could be wrong though...it wouldn't be the first time.

You are right that refining is maxxed (I work for a petroleum company). But Oil production is probably not that far behind else stoppages to pumping operations probably would not have as much effect.