http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/8066615.stm

- Yegads.

'It said the test had been "safely conducted at a new high level in terms of explosive power and control technology".'

Russia said 20 kilo tons, so they have improved a lot.

Well, when NK says anything, Russia parrots it, including the NK satellite that, if it is orbiting the earth singing praises to fearless leader, then it is doing so while underwater.

But anyway, it looks like NK wants attention, and so they got it. Mission Accomplished!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/8067711.stm

- Bombs away. Is it more than attention seeking?

"Our army and people are fully ready for battle... against any reckless US attempt for a pre-emptive attack," it said in a piece criticising US moves to relocate its fighter jets.

Clearly, they hired Baghdad Bob to ghostwrite for their PR people.

Isn't this, somehow, G.W. Bush's fault?

Maybe lumping them in with the "Axis of Evil" was a self-fulfilling prophecy, or something.

They didn't attack the US while on his watch, "Mission Accomplished" (TM)

Isn't this, somehow, G.W. Bush's fault?
It is always bush's fault. The White House stood by and did nothing. Why did George W. Bush--his foreign policy avowedly devoted to stopping "rogue regimes" from acquiring weapons of mass destruction--allow one of the world's most dangerous regimes to acquire the makings of the deadliest WMDs? Given the current mayhem and bloodshed in Iraq, it's hard to imagine a decision more ill-conceived than invading that country unilaterally without a plan for the "post-war" era. But the Bush administration's inept diplomacy toward North Korea might well have graver consequences. President Bush made the case for war in Iraq on the premise that Saddam Hussein might soon have nuclear weapons--which turned out not to be true. Kim Jong-il may have nuclear weapons now; he certainly has enough plutonium to build some, and the reactors to breed more.

{snip}

The pattern of decision making that led to this debacle--as described to me in recent interviews with key former administration officials who participated in the events--will sound familiar to anyone who has watched Bush and his cabinet in action. It is a pattern of wishful thinking, blinding moral outrage, willful ignorance of foreign cultures, a naive faith in American triumphalism, a contempt for the messy compromises of diplomacy, and a knee-jerk refusal to do anything the way the Clinton administration did it.
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2004/0405.kaplan.html

Ahh, I knew it had to be. Thanks, Smidget. Might have also had something to do with G.W. having a mad on for Saddam for trying to assasinate his dad. Kim was just a Dr. Evil wannabe, in his eyes.

Now I wonder if Obama will be able to charm North Korea out of further missle tests and/or any higher nuclear yield underground detonations. It will be a real test of his administration and if he's successful, will be sure to guarantee his next term.

Hopefully he'll learn from the mistakes of both of the previous administrations: that you can't throw money at the situation expecting it to get better, nor can you ignore it and hope it will go away.

I doubt it matters what President Obama might opt to do; there is going to be a conflict on the Korean peninsula. North Korea has seen all too well how sitting down to the table and discussing the situation does not pay off, but the aid given to countries following armed conflicts for rebuilding and creating agricultural pursuits and infrastructure improvements has always been readily available.

There will be an attack on South Korea, and possibly even some missiles fired toward Japan. After a week or two (or a month at most) of back and forth actions, there will be a conditional surrender predicated upon specific aid packages, with the threat of greatly expanding the military activity if not accepted. Of course, the behind the scenes dialog will have negotiated almost exactly what will be the official treaty terms.

At least, that is how I see it.

Just take away NK's kimchi and they'll give up. Sickest excuse for food ever, even worse than the BBQ'd animal heads they eat in Paraguay.

North Korea is in a very bad spot in that if they really do make themselves into an immediate and urgent regional threat, China is highly likely to come down hard on them. I find it highly unlikely the new Asian Co-prosperity Sphere mentality will well tolerate non-sanctioned acts of war (to say nothing of South Korea and the US).

This is the sort of game you lose if you actually hit the ball.

And that would be a comfort if there was a rational leader in NK.

This is China's problem to deal with, not the United States, as if there is anyone who can put leverage on them its the Chinese. Someone has been keeping North Korea afloat all these years, even if all North Korea can boast is the world's 5th largest standing army. That army is more about keeping an entire nation's male population in a welfare state and living under military discipline while earning next to no money then any desire for conquest. While it is probably a whole lot cheaper than developing actual marketable industry and services, there is still the question of how does a nation in complete isolation like North Korea pay for anything with zero revenue from trade and that is China and Russia to a lesser degree. China is the rich uncle in this case, giving their misguided nephew more and more money to invest in foolish schemes, not because there is a hope of a return on investment, rather more so to ward off self destructive behavior. All China has to do is pull the allowance and ole Kim Jong Il, if he is even still alive and/or in charge, will have the 5th largest lot of pissed off soldiers. Its not a question of them getting paid, but if they would even be fed. An Army runs on its stomach after all and if the government doesn't provide, they have the arms to take it by force from the population. China won't allow that to happen and they certainly don't want a lawless nuclear armed state right on the border so close to Beijing.

there is still the question of how does a nation in complete isolation like North Korea pay for anything with zero revenue from trade and that is China and Russia to a lesser degree. Supposedly, what little national income they do have comes from smuggling drugs and counterfeiting $100 banknotes. There have been some incidents where Chinese banks get cut off from the world financial system for laundering NK's money. Banco Delta Asia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banco_Delta_Asia) became the poster child for the situation.

http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/js2720.htm
http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/hp315.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superdollar

Books like Illicit (http://www.amazon.com/Illicit-Smugglers-Traffickers-Copycats-Hijacking/dp/1400078849/) explain how deeply smuggling and counterfeiting is embedded in the global economy, and how failed/outlaw states such as Transnistria (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria) become central havens for trafficking.

Oh, and the rhetoric looks to be ratcheting up:North Korea, facing international sanction for this week's nuclear test, threatened on Wednesday to attack the South after Seoul joined a U.S.-led initiative to check vessels suspected of carrying equipment for weapons of mass destruction.

A North Korean army spokesman also said the country was no longer bound by the armistice signed at the end of the 1950-53 Korean War because Washington had ignored its responsibility as a signatory by drawing South Korea into its naval initiative.

The threat comes after South Korean media reported earlier that Pyongyang had restarted a plant that makes weapons-grade plutonium.

"Any hostile act against our peaceful vessels including search and seizure will be considered an unpardonable infringement on our sovereignty and we will immediately respond with a powerful military strike," the spokesman for the North's army was quoted as saying by the official KCNA news agency.

South Korea announced on Tuesday it was joining the naval exercise, called the Proliferation Security Initiative. Source (http://www.portfolio.com/business-news/reuters/2009/05/27/north-korea-warns-of-attack-if-ships-checked)

A naval blockade is technically an act of war. And the norks are very good at playing chicken by throwing the steering wheel out of the car.

Errr.. I'm not sure if I like the way this is escalating. I think Byl might have hit quite close to home.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/8069457.stm

Its a bunch of talk. NK is holding the Korean Pennisula for ransom once again and of course it will be easier to cave just a little then have that region of the world once again be at war. Considering that NK's most likely target would be the DMZ US military installations and China probably will not allow the US to counter act without severely damaging US-Chinese relations, there are not too many options on the table.

Heard this morning they basically said screw the armistice and tested another missle. I fail to see how this is China's problem when we have troops stationed in SK though.

Heard this morning they basically said screw the armistice and tested another missle. I fail to see how this is China's problem when we have troops stationed in SK though.


It is China's problem because they are on their border and they exist because of China. The issue here shows that China has lost any control it had of NK.

Haven't we learned by now that the entire world seems to be the USA's problem and if left to itself NOONE will do anything about ANYTHING but us :(

You can't have commercial dominance and economic supremacy without political leadership and military intervention.

Just ain't possible.

Well we aren't very dominate anymore.... China can take over now.....

And China will...they are pissed off at NK I'm sure

Heard this morning they basically said screw the armistice and tested another missle. I fail to see how this is China's problem when we have troops stationed in SK though.

China has been the primary enabler of NK, but this time NK may have gone too far because even China has condemned the nuclear test in strong terms.


And, to give more clarification to the tension in the region, Japan's government has actually begun discussing their duty of using preemptive strikes against hostile nations; this would, of course, require rewriting some of Japan's pacifist Constitution.

Meh.

This is all not a big deal.

Simply dissected... KJI is in the final few months of his rule. He will (he hopes) be passing on the mantle of leadership to his son. Before he does that he is going to try to give the new despot the best possible hand to play.

So he goes all rogue and crazy for a little bit... but nothing too bad, just alot of saber rattling. After a bit, he retires, his son takes over and offers to "Start New". Everyone remarks how much better the new kid is, sanctions ease, aid flows, people eat... all is well.

They are China's problem , because China is not going to allow a US fleet off their coast. Until we are ready to give China the finger or get their permission ( yah right) nothing will happen.