Any insight on the latest Sabre rattling going on:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100723/pl_nm/us_security_asia

along with this:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/atlantic/whyclintoncaressomuchaboutanasianislandchain4433

A bit concerned about some sort of accidental (or on purpose) action from N. Korea that could start something there again. God knows we can't afford a third war, but what can you do with a country as backward and psychotic as North Korea. Thoughts?

As most of the country is constantly on the bread-line, a 6 week blockade would probably bring them to their senses.

Either way, this is indeed all sabre rattling. The two big boys, China and the US, would have to have a break on the larger level, for the smaller players to possibly act on their micro-level. And the big boys right now are far too dependent on eachother - the US is hooked on Chinese goods, and China is sucking at the teat of the US consumer. That should hopefully hold things for a couple of decades, until the Latin American and African markets replace the US consumer. Then we will surely have a dangerously bi-polar world. Talk about reverting back to the 18th century!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-10752746

- Well, the exercises have begun, despite a supposed 'nuclear' warning by the North. That's some ramped up rhetoric - let's hope.

I suspect Korea is going to go too far and end up getting serious punishment from China. It's nice to have a little despot to threaten your rivals with, but historically, it hasn't been pretty when the dog got off the leash.

Sounds like NK has been staying out of the way of the exercises. I imagine their news cast goes something like, "US and South Korean navy keep their distance from mighty DPRK navy!"

And the big boys right now are far too dependent on eachother - the US is hooked on Chinese goods, and China is sucking at the teat of the US consumer.

Didn't China recently stop pegging its currency against the dollar so it can actually appreciate? I remember hearing a story about that on NPR. I forget what exactly the Chinese did, but apparently it was because they were under pressure from the international community because the Chinese have an unfair advantage on goods production because their currency is so undervalued compared to the rest of the manufacturers.

Could that speed up the split you're talking about?

I suspect Korea is going to go too far and end up getting serious punishment from China.

Some time back NK snatched the supply train coming from (and belong to) China. It was eventually returned, but no mention of hand-slapping for the indiscretion was mentioned. Not sure what it will take for China to wash it's hands of the wayward child.

Oh, they won't wash their hands of their retarded friend to the south, but it would be naive to assume they do not maintain a fair degree of control over North Korea. I think comparisons with Hussein's Iraq and the US would be germane, they play a political role for China but in the event they seriously threatened any trade partners China really cared about, the tanks would be across the border in no time.