While doing my daily check on damninteresting.com (thanks Sanchek, great link!), and randomizing articles to read something I didn't yet, I came upon this article (http://www.damninteresting.com/?p=36) about our more-or-less approaching time when we will have problems with oil.

At the base of this article, a webpage (http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/) with pretty detailed sources, links, datas and examples, which I read eagerly.

As mention on damninteresting, it may be that my judgement is dull, and I'm finding myself a bit skeptical about such a catastrophic scenario, and probably the fact that the big "crisis" will probably happen during my lifetime, in more or less 20 years ahead.

It's not like "global warming", "meteor killer" or "massive pollution", which, even if of concern, won't probably affect me or even my children, now everything I read today is telling me "Your life is gonna change, and not for the good".

Along dullness, I guess there is as well a "self-conservative" feeling that tells me "-naaaah, it's not gonna happen, it's under control".
Not to mention that our leaders are preparing changes to diminish global warming, or reduce pollution, and change everyday behaviors.
They know where are our priorities, don't they?


But yet, my neck hair is tiggling, as I can see the first ripples today (barrel's prices increasing, for one) of that big bad meteor crashing in a near future... And if we were closer to the end of our civilisation than we think?


What do you think, should I get myself a sweet and fitting tin-foil hat, or should I start storing seeds?

I bet that the sustained, global war(s) for oil will do us in before the oil shortage itself does.

My grandparents were born in a time when oil use was not that common, and their parents lived in a time when there was practically no oil use. Peak oil will come. It may come sooner rather than later. There will be some adjusting to do. And life will go on. Civilization existed long before it learned how to drill oil and refine it into fuel.

Rush hour is going to be a real bitch with all those horse and buggies, tho'.:eek:

Just FYI, world population in 1930 (about the time we became largely petroleum dependent) was TWO billion - it's nearly seven billion now, and growing. Population density is so much higher in modern cities, and we're pushing the limits of our arable land as is - we simply no longer have the physical resources, by numerous measures, to support and house a large population of draft animals, or to rely extensively on firewood or other biomass-derived sources for fuel.

Petrochemicals are more than just the gasoline you put in your car, or oil that heats your home, or powers electrical turbines - it's also plastics, fertilizers, pesticides, dyes, and medicines - many of the things that made reaching this population density on the earth in such a short time possible. As the American Plastics Council is wont to remind us, just try imagining what your everyday life would be without them, much life how day to day operations in a *hospital* would be altered! Not to mention the enormous amount of energy waste generated when countries export the *exact same type goods that they import* (Great Britain estimated that 15% of its trade last year consisted of exactly that), or send empty container ships all the way across the Pacific Ocean to return full of goods that are as often as not made primarily of petrochemicals :).

We are in for a very rough road ahead, and our warning shot, which went unheeded, came nearly 35 years ago with the OPEC oil embargo (we decided instead, especially in the last 15 years, simply to make sure we 'got ours while we could'). My prediction is that oil and coal will simply become so expensive that they will be impractical for routine use and we'll see solar heating systems become cost-competitive. Cities will utilize 'green insulation' (see Chicago's Daly building) and become more compact; single family motorized vehicles will all but cease to exist (and where they do, will be a shared resource much like we see with the by-the-hour rental cars in many of the major cities) and rapid transit will become a necessity. The suburbs as we know them will largely cease to exist, being economically untenable. Society will be truly split between the small numbers of people needed to work in agriculture, mining, and other direct-contact resource interactions, and those that live in dense urban areas because it's not economically feasible to house and provide for them any other way given current population levels, despite many people's dreams of returning to a bucolic pastoral existence.

Like it or not, I think we're going to be forced to rely on nuclear power to a significant extent as well, again because of the sheer number of people whose energy demands must be met. I think we will see nuclear powered cargo vessels, and even trains, seriously discussed before too much longer, and travel for *pleasure* will once again become the preserve of the wealthy.

I don't look on the upcoming oil crisis as being entirely a bad thing; indeed, it's simply the reality check for the last 70 years coming due, and when all the dust settles, hopefully human beings will have learned to live in a more sustainable fashion on the earth. Indeed, the loss of petrochemicals may be the very thing that saves us from ourselves, because it will make many types of resource plundering and degradation much less economically feasible.

Regards,
Nydia

The current optimist's viewpoint is that we're not at all near peak oil yet, it's just that the oil producing countries with the highest reservoirs are making so much lucre that they don't feel a need to increase production to meet demand. My reading suggests that this is just wishful thinking, but there you have it.

I bet that the sustained, global war(s) for oil will do us in before the oil shortage itself does.

We can only hope to be so lucky. We need like a dozen more Iraq going simultaneously, cut down on the global population!

Or an "Accident" to happen.
I think that new Will Smith movie, I Am Legend, deals with just that; a drastic change in the global population from 5 billion, to just 1 person.

That's the thing, there are plenty of reasons to actively pursue energy independence and sustainability; if one argument doesn't convince you, there are plenty of others that might (and should).

By becoming capable of being as self-sufficient as possible, we would reduce the need to meddle in other countries. We would have fewer enemies and fewer weaknesses to be exploited.

My hope is that nuclear power, using modern reactors that reprocess fuel, will buy us several hundred years (or more) to get fusion working. We'll also need technologies that allow for more flexible energy input (hydrogen in cars, for example). Our current dependence on oil for plastics and other things makes it that much more important for us to stop using oil for energy.

Couldn't agree more Palarran.

Instead of going to Mars, we need a moon shot iniative to get alternative fuels up and viable for our needs. I'm not talking about ethanol either.

We could do so much better. The prestige and confidence in America that was brought about by the Gemini, Mercury, and Apollo successes could be dwarfed and propel us well into the 22nd century. Frankly, we're probably the only economy on Earth that can both afford to do this... and can't afford not to do this.

'By becoming capable of being as self-sufficient as possible, we would reduce the need to meddle in other countries. We would have fewer enemies and fewer weaknesses to be exploited.'


- You'll never reduce the need to meddle in other countries. Natural resources are of course a prime motive of imperialism, intervention or just war in general, but removing that - there are plenty of other motives for such acts.

Well, it certainly would shut up the "NO WAR FOR OIL" crowd....

While the moon shot had JFK to push it, who would be the face for this effort?

I once read an in-depth article a few years ago that the next big war will not be for oil, but for water. Oil use can be replaced eventually with substitutes or alternative energy sources. It would be hard, but as others have posted here, it can be done with time and money.
Fresh water on the other hand, is something that we're beginning to see shortages of, especially in the middle east and african countries. The more the world population grows, the worse it will get till war is inevitable imho.
I do hope that we eventually go back out into space tho. If we had continued what we had started in the 60's and 70's, we'd already be on mars and on the moon imho.
Just my opinion tho...:club

And then what? I fail to see space exploration as anything other than a hobby. I would rather see the money and energy dumped into alternative fuel supplies, cheaper and easier means to desalination of the oceans into fresh water...ect.

And then what? I fail to see space exploration as anything other than a hobby. I would rather see the money and energy dumped into alternative fuel supplies, cheaper and easier means to desalination of the oceans into fresh water...ect.

We have not yet determined the resources available on the Moon and Mars, so we don't know if there is good reason to continue putting money into these endeavours.

We have not yet determined the resources available on the Moon and Mars, so we don't know if there is good reason to continue putting money into these endeavours. Just attempting it would be of value to the country. But there is more value in achieving energy independance.

If OPEC controls the flow of oil, and most of the OPEC countries are arid and in need of fresh water, why aren't they paying for water in relation to the price they set on oil?

I'm pretty sure the prices on oil would drop if that were the case.

Saw the title and thought you guys had a stock tip for me.... :(

We get most of our oil from Canada and Mexico. We only get a third (or less) from the middle east. I don't imagine Canada or Mexico being that hard up for water ... one having thousands of fresh water lakes and the other being part rain forest.

Wouldn't the ones that need the water, be able to pressure the ones that don't?

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is a permanent, intergovernmental Organization, created at the Baghdad Conference on September 10–14, 1960, by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. The five Founding Members were later joined by nine other Members: Qatar (1961); Indonesia (1962); Socialist Peoples Libyan Arab Jamahiriya (1962); United Arab Emirates (1967); Algeria (1969); Nigeria (1971); Ecuador (1973–1992); Gabon (1975–1994) and Angola (2007).

http://www.opec.org/aboutus/

Most of the countries in OPEC are Arid, dry countries, and they are the ones that set the prices.
We need to start setting a price on fresh water to these countries....

I'm not expert on global weather patterns, but wouldn't that reduce the amount of water in our local weather system? I think it takes a non-trivial amount of time for that to balance out, and that's just what evaporates. Whatever they manage to capture in sewer and process would never make it back here.

Seems like water's the last thing we should be sending away, when we're already having major water issues of our own in several areas of the country.

I'm on my phone so can't get a link but on the news this morning there was an interesting story about Orange County, CA building a water treatment plant that'll take household waste water a la Kevin Costner in Water World and turn it into drinking water. That plus a little rainfall is all the county will need forever.

I suspect it takes more than a hand pump to do it like in the movie. So how much energy (oil, coal, ...) does it take to process the pee water?

Seems like water's the last thing we should be sending away, when we're already having major water issues of our own in several areas of the country.

http://enr.construction.com/sp_Projects/green/archives/050815b.asp

I was thinking of something like this, where we sell them the tech, and then place a price on the upkeep, and/or maintenance parts, to offset the cost of OPEC's price changes.....

I bet that the sustained, global war(s) for oil will do us in before the oil shortage itself does.

That is sad..but I bet your right :(

That's the thing, there are plenty of reasons to actively pursue energy independence and sustainability; if one argument doesn't convince you, there are plenty of others that might (and should).

By becoming capable of being as self-sufficient as possible, we would reduce the need to meddle in other countries. We would have fewer enemies and fewer weaknesses to be exploited.

I agree for the need to actively pursue energy independence. I have to say a friend of mine just bought a house and it was a semi-custom home. It is totally energy efficient to the point of where solar panels produced the homes energy consumption needs and even could sell some to the local electric company. I can see us someday when we buy a house we also are buying solar panels are even renting solar panels for our houses to produce our electricity.

I wonder if they can find a way to produce electricity (solor wise)to run a manufacturing company? That would be NICE! :)