Let's get Nostradamus for a bit.
In thinking about the, rightly, unique history of the 20th century, I have to ask - what are your predictions for the century ahead of us? In terms of industry, energy, wars, rise, falls, global governments, technologies.. anything.

Personally, in terms of power and government, I see the UN going the way of the League of Nations, without the comeback. I definately see a gradual, but very, very, slow decline in American global dominance, both commercially and military (perhaps purposely for the latter), and a significant rise in Asian and Far Eastern power. Perhaps a less passive Japan, a far more stable and rising China. With expansionist policy? Maybe.
Europe? Well, I'm honestly not sure. As always with Europe, I sense a polarizing unification ahead. But a unification nonetheless. The massive expansion (ludicrously even in to Asia it seems) will lead to a catch-up game of strain for the early part of the century, and so most likely a splintering among the core states. Particularly, I believe, believe us Brits and the ever-growing Franco-German alliance (even though I mean it in political and commercial terms.. it still sounds scary, doesn't it? :P).
But I definately see a continuous rise of democracy, specifically in the Middle East as religion declines as it has done in Europe (and very probably will continue to do, to the point of non-existence). Either that or they'll all end up American puppet-states :P
With the fading oil industry perhaps in the middle of the century, massive industrious priorities will likely shift, and inevitably economies will rise and fall. Again, definately a change in the Middle East, but regarding Africa, well fuck, I don't think that's ever going to change.
Not this century, or the next.
And who knows what else. The Mars Race? Labs on the moon? Mobile phones that move your limbs for you?
Would be interesting to hear your thoughts.

I agree with you in part. I do not see America loosing power or it's military might, but I agree the Far East (read China) is growing year after year. Eventually someone is going to try and knock the big dog(America) off the yard. I agree of course Japan will have to become less Passive. Could be one hell of a ride when that one breaks off.

I think people are going to get very bored with the middle-east as China grows into it's postition.

Gah, these things always bring out the cynic in me.


1. I believe there will be an insurrection of sorts involving the environmentalists and the government when the protected lands are all opened up for drilling.

2. There will be a major push toward developing an alternative fuel source that can be controlled by the same folks now in control of our energy.

3. The United Nations will cease to function as little more than Unicef, with the resulting minor (and some major) border conflicts that have been brewing for years.

4. The continuing AIDS crisis in Africa will result in a large part of the continent being quarantined. There will be several outbreaks of varied plagues that will sweep these regions, leaving the population decimated even further. Africa becomes an international prison site where convicts work in the mines and fields, or are left to fend for themselves; these would be only those considered maximum security, and the previously quarantined area would be the area utilized.

5. Organized religion will continue to diminish as more people grow unhappy with the Us vs. Them aspects present in all religions.

6. There will be several Pulitzer Prize winning discoveries directly related to the problem of trying to feed the growing population of the planet. And, birth control will be taken to new levels as government get more involved in managing populations and resources.

7. The devastation resulting from the Nuclear exchanges between India and Pakistan and between North and South Korea leave the Asian continent in disarray, with a major shift in population to the northern and western reaches. And, a reinvigorated Nuclear disarmament movement sweeps the planet.

8. A major anti big-business movement will sweep the planet attempting to force influence out of government in the hope of realizing a true democraticly run body of nations. This will eventually be followed by the pendulum swinging back and increased influence in world affairs by big-business.

9. Continued pollution and it's effects on the planet will result in shifting populations, and an effort to better protect the resources still available. There will possibly be an international treaty regarding the remaining rain forests, as the scientific community becomes more widely respected.

10. There will be an international backlash against organized sports and the rich, spoiled athletes which results in the disbanding of all professional sport leagues and the heightened interest in amateur athletics. This will in turn lead to the creation and adoption as the International sport of ROLLERBALL!:p


Hey, it could happen.

The EU:
I believe the EU will within the next 50 years shy away from the economic aspect that originally founded the union and more and more approach the concept of "global unification". We'll slowly homogenize within EU's borders, while maintaining national identities, and slowly be indoctrinated with every passing nation towards considering the Union our actual nationality.
At the same time EU will slowly expand towards the east, absorbing the previous Soviet-states with promises of economic renewal, fair elections and human rights. Once so absorbed, whether formally or informally, we'll use armed forces to shut down behavior we consider unproductive, in essence absorbing states to the left and right and enforcing our views, morals and standards. A lot of "bribes" will come into play in the form of "join the EU and we'll rebuild your economical base and expand your agriculture". If you didn't know the prerequiscite for any nation to evolve is an agricultural system that frees up labor and allows a larger portion of the population to pursue more academic careers.

China, the UN and the world scene.
I don't think the US or its priorities will change much in the next 100 years. I however believe that it will become more and more strangled in its "policing the world" policies due to the emergance of EU and a more "free for all" thinking on the political level.

I predict that China will grow to be the real powerhouse of the world as more and more western corporations gain a foothold in what's today the world's largest market. They will grow on a technical and industrial level to become a juggernaught economically and military. I think that the Chinese government will lie low and allow the western philosophies to be absorbed by the chinese market, while running weapon and military programs in the background. They will continue "enslaving" the population via the threat of death penalty and the Golden Shield (internet controlling concept that they're close to perfecting). In all, China will become a police state that will be tolerated, and even craved, by the rest of the world for the large economic market it will be. It will simply be a Russia but with self-preservation.

At the same time that the Chinese and European governments expand to monolithic sizes the UN will find itself diminished, and in the end become obsolete. The design around the security council and its' vetoes will in the end be its downfall as the global market becomes the battleground for US, EU and Chinese interests, especially since Russia, now probably largely caught up to the level of a pre-EU european state, will try to butt in every chance it gets to increase in size and influence. I doubt the rodina will have forgotten its' glory days. Russians are persistant people.

Oil:
The Middle East will slowly turn off the taps, ever increasing the price of oil, and this will be tolerated for a very long time. However, sooner or later the patience of one of the three juggernaughts will be up, and they will be invaded under under the pretense of "stabilizing the middle east". Whichever juggernaught assumes control will either agree to acceptable prices with the other two, or find them gang up on it and then we'll be smack dab in WW3.

At the same time new technological findings, along with the extreme increase in price, will allow non-Middle Eastern oil companies to drill up oil reserves that have previously been untouchable due to the cost related of drilling it. Russia will become a strong player in this as they've already as I'm writing this building a mastodontic oil production in the Urals (where large cavities of oil has been found).
Regardless, within 50 years we'll see Oil being rationed out on a nation-by-nation basis.

Summary on oil: There are two scenarios. Either we share and share alike or WW3 will erupt. Either way, the middle east will be run over and obliterated unless already absorbed by the EU.

Japan:
Japan, the silent warrior, will have again surfaced a military might that can rival many (it already has, although hardly no one knows about it), but will instead be playing the field of economics and technology. Japan will be the future's pioneers in the space age that will inevitably emerge (unless we blow ourselves to smithereens). Japan, in cooperation with other nations (primarilly the US and/or Russia) will launch the first manned colonial space projects. I reserve judgement on the possibility of success for such.

Wow, nice, specific observations guys.

Seems to be a common element of Great Powers in the future, just like the past. Definately a shifting pattern of power, though.
What hopes for democracy, I wonder. Or English/American culture at that.

Kiv, your insight in to Russia was a rather cool one. I think their current economy is just below that of the trillion dollar economies of Western Europe, and for a nation of Russia's size/ratio, isn't particularly good. Aye, 50 years sounds about right. Key strategic industries and its oil reservations may well keep it in "the game", so to speak.

Almost as if you can outline a Third World War centred around Russia v EU v China v US.
Argh. Better gear up on sticks for WW4.

It's interesting to note that no one has really resolved to think of today's "broken" countries as stronger in the future (ie a unified Middle East, perhaps?).

Edit: Regarding Russia a bit more, supposing the EU does become a unified entity, with Russia siding with all things European from trade to international policy, could it suffer the fate of becoming the EU's big, bitch in the future? With its slugging and declined economy, it may well be forced too. Or does it stand to become a reformed Great Power, based on its oil reserves and, well, tendency to get back up when kicked down?

A unified Middle-East? Never. THis is what happenes INHO when there is a lack of seperation between church and state. There Church IS the state. No good. America will will keep fiddlefucking around there until it's dried up. Thats maybe my only complaint with Bush. Slow go on the alernative fuel sources. Oh, well I need to gas for now. Gotta feed a Hemi. Sucker is hungry. Once it's dried up and, POP, wow look we discovered Hydrogen as a fuels source! DUH! Once that happens the middle-east will be allowed to dry up and blow away...

Halo, I'll apologize in advance for not being very specific. I tend to be very theoretical and general in the way I look at things, so... sorry. ;)

Over the past century, the largest change to be noticed is probably an increase in global communication. That's caused a number of different things. In general, most countries are not as nationalistic as they used to be; we are increasingly becoming more global.
As far as politics are concerned, things right now are generally pretty stationary. There aren't really any competing ideologies right now. Communism, for the most part, is dead - yes, a number of countries still practice it, but it's on the decline. China is a very powerful player in the world right now, but they are moving away from communism, be it rather slowly. So, what's that mean in the world of politics?

I'm of the opinion that governmental policy is often a direct reflection of the problems (also: perceived problems) facing society. For instance, the earliest governments dealt mostly with property issues; specifically, food. For example... I brought up the Code of Hammurabi in another thread before, and I don't mean to be repetitive, but that's a pretty good example. Under the CoH, a barowner caught watering down his beer was put to death. That seems harsh, but you have to look at a few things about the time and place they lived in order to understand it.

For one thing, beer was a pretty large part of the diet. 'Employers' often paid their workers with it, and fed their slaves with it. Nourishment wasn't easy to come by, and if you're watering down someone's sole sustenance for selfish gain, I'd say you qualify as a Grade A Motherfucker, and might be considered a pretty strong threat to society.

There were many other similar laws affecting food, architecture, and other issues central to the needs of society. I'm being a bit wordy, but I'll get to the point. The way that society acts is usually pretty reflective of the problems it's facing, so if you want to look at the way things are going to move, look at the (developing) problems.

But what are they?

Some people (specifically, those living in the US) might say terrorism. I'm not sure that's very accurate; it's not really a world-wide problem, it just happens to be most strongly affecting a huge power-player right now. It's possible that the US may make its problems the world's problems (in fact, some would argue we already have), but I don't see that being a big problem in the long run - at least, not for the entire planet.

I can definitely see environmentalism becoming more important as time goes on, too. Pretty soon I think we'll have to react more strongly to the depletion of resources. As it becomes more of a problem, it's even possible that it may evolve into the sole focus of government. That might seem far-fetched, but look at history; when John Locke was writing about natural rights, it's likely no one thought that would be a central issue to government. However, take a look at the 1960's-80's in the US. Civil rights were huge; quite possibly the most important thing our government was doing at the time. The environmentally conscious are a minority right now, but they're growing - expect them to play a larger role in government as time goes on.

I'll come up with a better list tomorrow; I have to cut this short because it's 1:00 AM and I've got stuff to do before I go to bed. That's (part of) my take on things. ;)

My prediction: Bush will win this election, and something is going to happen between him and Arafat in 2006. *Shrug*.

Ever read a book called "The 3rd Millenium?"

Cute book of predictions, but written during the Cold War, so it predicted that the US and Soviet Union would be the dominant powers.

Man. No one predicted a space ribbon.

I've got a more short term prediction:

If Bush wins,

November 3rd: Najaf and fallujah become the smoking craters they should be

if Kerry wins,

November 10th: He dies from asphyxiation, because he flip flopped on the whole breathing thing

I predict most things will change in directions none of us can foresee. But here goes anyway....

1. Governmentally, I am going out on a limb and say "democracy" will lose ground in the world over all, to be replaced with ethnic police states, dictatorships and single-party governments. More and more states, especially in Africa, will fail and become new Somalias. Current governments in the Middle East will crumble and not be replaced with new ones. Instead they will devolve into tribal/ethnic rule of much smaller areas. Warfare will be endemic, especially war over dwindling oil supplies. The many disruptions will widen the gap between developed and third world countries, further giving impetous to conflicts. The developed world will look the other way more and more often as long as they get their oil, metals and other raw materials.

2. Population pressure will continue to rise until either a massive world wide war breaks out over dwindling resources or a new plague (avian super-flu?) thins populations back to sustainable levels. Medicine will not keep up with the plethora of new deadly strains. Starvation will again start to become more commonplace.

3. The many problems listed above will begin to slow the pace of scientific research, resulting in a much slower rate of technological advancement than we saw the last century. More people will be uneducated, or at least not educated in the sciences. Religious education, especially in muslim dominated countries, will become more widespread in its place.

4. The UN as it is currently set up is doomed. Pressure to enfranchise more countries into the security council will ensure even more deadlock whenever any issue of substance arises. More countries will take the US path of doing what they believe to be in their best interest outside of UN approval. With no independent enforcement capability, the UN will cease to be relevant to resolving conflicts.

5. The US will lose one or more cities (most likely New York City and Los Angeles) to a terrorist nuclear attack sometime in the next century. Nuclear weapons will be far more widespread than is currently the case. Smaller countries will arm themselves in order to gain "respect", similar to what Pakistan and India have done. No one currently owning them will give them up entirely, though US and Russian arsenals will dwindle over time. Japan will rewrite it's constitution to allow it to become a nuclear armed nation. So will Australia.

6. Israel and its Arab neighbors will continue to slaughter each other with no end in sight. Go figure.

7. South America will stumble along much as it has the last century. Brazil will emerge as the closest thing to a major power but will continue to suffer from economic and political mismanagement, preventing it from becoming a first rate power. Columbia will become a failed state and will continue to cause troubles for Panama and Venezuela with cross border violence from various drug/warlords.

8. The EU will never reach the level of integration currently envisioned. Backlash from countries not getting the promised benefits from the union will cause the whole thing to split up into different political blocks. Europe will continue to lag the Far East and North America in many economic areas but will not lose as much ground as some fear. Generous social programs will be cut back from their current levels to enhance industrial competitiveness though they will experience a change in the nature of their economies away from manufacturing and towards design and services (much like the US). Europe will tend more towards the Japanese method of economic influence in world affairs and forego military strength as a means of influence.

9. Asia (especially China and India) will increase in its influence. The growth of industry in China will spell an environmental disaster for the area as more and more pollution results. China and India will feel the brunt of the population burden most of all and will become big importers of food and fuel. China will overtly seize the Spratley Islands for its oil and gas reserves, coming into direct conflict with a number of it's neighbors (Vietnam, Phillipines, Indonesia, etc.) as a result.