In my not so honest and humble opinion Obama is indeed going to be the next President of these here United States of America. But I think that is only because McCain has polarized the right so bad that many conservatives will not vote for him thus ensuring Obama the victory. Can McCain draw enough Hillary supporters? Maybe. They sure seemed to torque a butt cord when the DNC declared them 1/2 a person the other day. Can McCain rally any votes with a strong conservative VP running mate? Will hillary vi(SP) FOR vp? What say you one and all?

Mr. President Barack Obama... That is all

McCain was last place starting out, Hillary was picked to win ... the campaign is just begun, not ending :)

McCain was last place starting out, Hillary was picked to win ... the campaign is just begun, not ending :)

True enough.... It will be interesting to see what the "Swift Boaters" for each side come up with. I guess I am rather pessimistic about things this year.

Obama might have same issue McCain has. That being the party might not unite behind him. Alot of Hillary supporters seem to feel betrayed by the Dem party (from reading and the few I know in person). These Hillary supporters claim they will not vote for Obama and in fact say they will vote McCain.

McCain has issue that for Rep he is not a Republican to the party. Most seem to view him as a moderate or even a Dem in sheep’s clothing. The stuff he did that might gain votes from the middle undecided people (if they actually exist anymore) is the exact things he will lose votes for from the core of his own party. Main difference I see here is they claim they just won’t vote instead of voting for someone else.

What Hillary does is a toss up. But personally I can’t picture her being VP. And if she does she is crazier than I thought. But if she gets talked into it this could somehow unite all Dems behind the ticket.

But it will prob be a normal election. Both sides know stacks and both sides could mobilize and turn it either way. Certain issues I think could make this interesting election. Supreme Court could be up for grabs, that alone could bring out a lot (who makes laws for next 30 years is big). The abortion issue seems to be coming up again. Stuff like that could make it anything. And both McCain and Obama have alot issues that can be attacked from the other side so could get ugly.


Basically it can go either way I think. But more than likely will be Obama, But always look for the upset.

A lot will depend on who they choose for their running mate. If McCain picks Huckabee for example I will not vote for him. However if he picks Romney I will.

If Obama picks Billary for his veep, then its pretty likely he won't have to worry about splitting his party. But if he does I don't give a shit who McCain picks I will not support Hillary Clinton in any shape or fashion.

If I'm Obama, the last thing in the world I want is for my beating heart to be the only thing between her and the Presidency.

All I know is Obama just gave a speech that made McCain look like an Idiot, and himself an even bigger rockstar.

He is indeed an brilliant orator even if I don't believe a word of it...

A very impressive speech; uplifting, challenging, invoking memories of JFK in his determination to push folks to reach for their best.

I give it an 85; nice beat, and easy to dance to.

He is indeed an brilliant orator even if I don't believe a word of it...
Me either.

Raising spending and cutting taxes at the same time doesn't jive.

Me either.

Raising spending and cutting taxes at the same time doesn't jive.

His plans include lowering taxes for the middle class, while doing away with the tax cuts for the rich. So there is some sense to it.

So Mc Cain is an alsoran "candidate of change." What a shock. Of course is the candidate of "right change" and Obama is the candidate of "wrong change." How droll. Anyway, a ticked of Obama/Clinton is unstoppable. However if Mc Cain chose, lets say Ron Paul for veep then it would be interesting.

McCain will win. I don't see Barack getting past the whole black thing. I don't think the country is there yet.

Same with Hillary being a woman

That being said, McCain is just about as ugly and old as they come..... I have a hard time looking at him.....and I'm a Republican!

His plans include lowering taxes for the middle class, while doing away with the tax cuts for the rich. So there is some sense to it.
I mean, I think the government could run on 0 income taxes, no problem whatsoever. I just don't think the semi-socialist government he wants can run without even more taxation (ugh).

The only way Mc Cain can win is if somehow the gas prices cut in half by november and Mc Cain is direcly responsible. If gas prices are the same or higher in november then its a done deal. I am sure that the vote in november will be all about gas prices. People may not know what Obama "change" really is or means, but they do know that Mc Cain represents "four more years."

Obama unified about 90% of the party last night with that speech.

10% is lost. But that was never Obamas strength. Obamas greatest asset is that he expands the playing field. People who never voted before are going to come out in record numbers. McCains only potential field is dissaffected Hillary supporters, but there is just not enough there.

If you saw both speeches tonight you would know this is a foregone conclusion. McCain is a REALLY bad public speaker. And every single time he gets in front of a camera, he is going to suffer comparisons with probably the greatest orator of this generation. Tonight was brutal, McCain had the affect of a Elementary School Principle scolding the first grade class for not walking in an orderly fashion. McCain gave this speech in a sad attempt the get some, ANY airtime by piggybacking on the Dem Primary. And what happens after him? Obama gives probably his best speech ever, dismantling McCain.

Not to mention the crowds. McCain had like 5 people in the audience, with the one campaign guy being 20% louder than the other 4 in an embarrassing attempt to cheer lead and crowd that was seemingly near comotose.

Obama had 17,000 people jammed into the XL Center with 15,000 people waiting outside. And he delivered.

This one is going to be a murder. McCain has no shot.

People who never voted before are going to come out in record numbers. This exact comment was made last 2 president elections. It was supposed to be a slam dunk for Kerry and an accepted fact Gore would win. Republicans had no chance then. People saying they will come out and actually coming out are 2 diff things. And also people never plan on the people who are quite and looked over by the media and actually shun the attention (the people Obama basically thinks are hicks).

Remember a documentary about Air America. Was funny when they were dealing with the Kerry loss. Some person who was convinced just like everyone is now said something to the effect that "Am I living in a liberal bubble, I can’t believe they voted that A-hole in again", and was comforted by Randy Rhodes who told her something like "the people in middle are stupid and don’t matter". And yet they couldn’t accept that the hicks they dismiss made them lose the election they had in the bag. And I see same thing happening here. There are too many variables to be a slam dunk. No matter how much media, academia and what not hate the president and republicans in general. Someone keeps voting them in.

And keep in mind that if you hear over and over for full year or more that someone is going to win, you risk the idea of well my vote don’t matter and I will do something instead of voting today cause I’m busy. Specially the “new voters” who will be counted on. I have 2 friends who I’ve known since about age 12. Both have never voted before in their lives. One is female and one is male. One is white and one is black. Both for close to last 20 years now have said “this year I’m gonna vote”. And yet when day rolls around they are baffled how I managed to vote when they got to busy with trivial stuff and missed it (one missed voting on pot initiative because she was getting high). And yet again they are telling everyone that’s interested this time because the sex and race issue gets them interested. And yet even know they haven’t registered and I can tell ya without any doubt they will not vote. And yet both keep telling everyone they will. And one even said that in a poll).


Also the argument about Obama being a great speaker is getting tired to me personally. He uses the standard preacher rap and does good speeches. But same people who point this fact out at nosium will never accept that when he doesn’t have speech written ahead of time he seems to struggle and almost choke. Yes I'm talking about debates. Many don’t like the preacher angle he pulls. Others seem to think his trouble when not prepared ahead of time means maybe he being controlled and feed answers.

But anyways I do think he will probably win. But not convinced as much as the masses. Too much can happen and mess it up to be a sure thing. Cool to cheer for your guy and all just think everyone does a disservice to their candidate when they keep telling everyone it’s in the bag. You mobilize your enemies and discourage your base.

Hope for change though and change for hope.

This exact comment was made last 2 president elections. It was supposed to be a slam dunk for Kerry and an accepted fact Gore would win.

This is pure revisionist history. It didn't happen that way, and if you think it was like that, you werent paying attention. 2004 was the only one where people were at all shocked. Just everyone caught up too late to what alot of us knew already. Bush was a complete and utter failure as a president.

at nosium

ad nauseum

Mr. Obama nods. That’s intriguing. But he prefers his own riff, which not incidentally trains the eye not on him but on his crowds. “I love when I’m shaking hands on a rope line and”— he mimes the motion, hand over hand — “I see little old white ladies and big burly black guys and Latino girls and all their hands are entwining. They’re feeding on each other as much as on me."

He shrugs; it’s that distancing eye of the author.

“It’s like I’m just the excuse.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/04/us/politics/04obama.html?_r=1&pagewanted=3&hp&oref=slogin

How can anyone not respect this man!

qk7FHXziq8I

This was his speech last night in case anyone missed it

McCain will win. I don't see Barack getting past the whole black thing. I don't think the country is there yet.

Same with Hillary being a woman....

I dont think the Norhtern Appalachian (spelling) states are past it the rest of the country is. Also, Obama/Clinton ticket is unbeatable.

As far as "record number" being said previous elections. Sorry man, but record number of non-white voters will show up, Gore didnt garner much, and Kerry definately didnt, Obama will.

His "pastor" like speechs is what will carry him through the south. He has a charisma that is unheard of in politics anymore. He is someone they wont be ashamed of.

Bise.

America is a better place than you think it is.


If Obama wins or loses or loses it will not be because he was judged by the color of his skin, but by the content of his character.

Obama will make a huge mistake if he picks Hillary as a running mate. It is not an unstoppable ticket it's an albatross.

Obama would be better to pick Edwards or such before he picks that pariah Hillary.

Clinton as a running mate gives McCain a shot.

I'll also ask some of you eager Obama folks saying McCain has no shot to recall the same line you said when Bush didn't have a shot in 2004 ;P

Democrats are all about emotion, when it cools they fail to show at the voting box. I dont' think Obama can keep up the roller coaster party at full tilt. If he can , they win, when/if he falters McCain has a shot.

qk7FHXziq8I

This was his speech last night in case anyone missed it


/cheer he also gave a rather outstanding speech at the DNC in 2004.

Results are in, they lost...

Obama will pick a white male governor for VP.

I'll also ask some of you eager Obama folks saying McCain has no shot to recall the same line you said when Bush didn't have a shot in 2004 ;P

if you recall sir most of us Dem's didnt like Kerry :P and the comment was made out of desperation.

/cheer he also gave a rather outstanding speech at the DNC in 2004.

How are those two things even remotely related? I dont really follow the logic.

How are those two things even remotely related? I dont really follow the logic.

you are operating under the false assumption that logic has anything to do with it.

edit: haha this is hilarious.

http://www.veracifier.com/episode/TPM_20080604

"that's not change we can believe in...uhuhuh"

How are those two things even remotely related? I dont really follow the logic.


Ahhh because Jedd said he won the Pres with his great speech last night. I was drawing a line to his quite inspiring speech in 2004's DNC>


And Wiggo, shut it ya blasted Hungarian.

Have not had time to catch up on all the posts yet, having just got home, but I have to add another thought that could very well guarantee an Obama victory (IMO).

Caroline Kennedy is on the committee formed to search for a VP for Obama; is she not herself a fantastic candidate for that position? I really doubt she would give consideration to entering the same arena that has brought so much tragedy to her family, but if she were convinced to join the ticket I think people would be coming out of the woodwork to support it. Not only a Kennedy on the ticket, but maintaining the historic first female potential.

Just something that I had to mention before I go make supper. :D

I think Gov. Ted Strickland will most likely end up as the VP candidate. Time will tell.

So Fanny, Akipt, Osg, are you all ok with 4.50$ per gallon of gas? Or is that card carrying conservative thing finally paying off for you at the pump? Has Mc Cain offered to do anything about it, other than suspending the federal tax for the summer? Are you all ok with "4 more years?"

We're going to have to accept $4.50/gallon gas sooner or later regardless of who serves as President.
The sooner we move to some form of electric car (battery, supercapacitor, hydrogen, whatever), powered by electricity from modern nuclear power plants that don't use a once-through fuel cycle, the better.

So Fanny, Akipt, Osg, are you all ok with 4.50$ per gallon of gas? Or is that card carrying conservative thing finally paying off for you at the pump? Has Mc Cain offered to do anything about it, other than suspending the federal tax for the summer? Are you all ok with "4 more years?"


Bud, it was an illusion to think we were going to keep paying sub 2/3 bucks a gallon while the rest of the world was above 5 bucks a gallon for decades.

Has NOTHING to do with our politics as much as it does with the rest of the worlds demand increasing.

Love it when folks automatically ascribe the price to a party.

So Fanny, Akipt, Osg, are you all ok with 4.50$ per gallon of gas? Or is that card carrying conservative thing finally paying off for you at the pump? Has Mc Cain offered to do anything about it, other than suspending the federal tax for the summer? Are you all ok with "4 more years?"


I think the question should be "Are you OK with keeping our oil dependancy? OK without any substancial funding of alternative energy resources? Ok with responding to an attack on the US by going shopping? Ok with a continued attack on our constitutional rights? Ok with cutting taxes while at the same time increasing spending?"

So Fanny, Akipt, Osg, are you all ok with 4.50$ per gallon of gas? Or is that card carrying conservative thing finally paying off for you at the pump? Has Mc Cain offered to do anything about it, other than suspending the federal tax for the summer? Are you all ok with "4 more years?" To paraphrase Reagan, government is the problem, not the solution.

And are you so naive to think Obama is going to wave his magic pixie dust wand and bring back $2 / gallon gas? Corn based ethanol was a complete and utter failure, except for the farmers and ADM.

As much as I hate paying this much for gas....in the long run I think it's for the best. Finally there's a price tag attached to become less dependent on fossil fuels. Like it or not, we (the US) don't do anything about problems unless we are affected directly in our wallets/pocketbooks.

look what it's already done in the relatively short time gas prices have been high....giant SUV sales are way down, Hummer is being relegated to the dinosaur it always was, small cars and hybrid sales are way up.

Back to the thread. Obama a certainty...not even close. Remember, the GOP managed to get one of the worst presidents in history, re-elected. A man that started an unpopular war through lies or incompetancy (take your pick) and mis-speaks so much you'd think the presidential limo would be a short bus. No way is Obama a shoe in...no way.

Like it or not, we (the US) don't do anything about problems unless we are affected directly in our wallets/pocketbooks.You say this as a bad thing. Aside from the locomotive, every major standard of living advancing technology or innovation in the last 200ish years has come from the United States. We're obviously doing something right.

I think Gov. Ted Strickland will most likely end up as the VP candidate. Time will tell.

As someone from Ohio... please God no.

You say this as a bad thing. Aside from the locomotive, every major standard of living advancing technology or innovation in the last 200ish years has come from the United States. We're obviously doing something right.

Yes, but has there been anything new?

Top 50 inventions in the last 50 years. http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/upgrade/2078467.html?page=1 Granted this is one site, but I think most respect popular mechanics...

Anyway, I see a pretty big drop over the last 2 decades. Seems to me like the next big thing may actually come from a different country this time.

Intrade currently gives Obama a 60% chance of winning, compared to McCain's 36%.

You say this as a bad thing.

Sometimes it is, sometimes it isn't.

You say this as a bad thing. Aside from the locomotive, every major standard of living advancing technology or innovation in the last 200ish years has come from the United States. We're obviously doing something right.

This is a ridiculously indefensible statement and false correlation. I can think of several major "quality of life" discoveries not made here, antibiotics being a huge one, off the top of my head with no effort. Accepting this myth of magical American exceptionalism is just silly.

We had the only unwrecked economy after WWII. This is not because we were awesome, it was because we had two huge oceans between us and saturation bombing. It is thus unsurprising we had a few decades of industrial dominance afterwards. Extrapolating this backwards and forwards in time doesn't hold water.

You made a similarly wrong correlation between DOD spending and invention too. The DOD is the primary means by which research money is distributed because of military socialism, we could just as easily have put the money into NIST or the CDC, but deliberately chose not to do so for reasons unrelated to the research or efficiency of the organizations at doling out money.

Obama has given me hope about the future of the country for the first time since I've paid any attention to politics(mid 90's), but I'm still cautious due to how bigots and morons will always be a huge voting bloc when motivated. If McCain gets his own "gay marriage," he'll have a shot. Admittedly, Obama's race could be just that issue (especially when mixed with the media's infatuation with McCain). If not, McCain is just so pathetic(and getting worse every day) I don't see how he can win. It has become painful and embarrassing to listen to him speak, you can tell how uncomfortable he is spewing things he obviously knows are bullshit. blink blink blink laugh laugh blink blink blink blink empty talking point blink blink blink

Case in point Akipt:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080606/ap_on_go_co/climate_congress

Any moron will tell you that reducing air pollution is something we NEED to do, regardless if you are in denial about global warming or not...but until we start having shell out cash for gas masks (j/k), nothing will be done.

As I said, sometimes waiting until it's economical isn't the wisest choice in the long run...sometimes it is.

American businesses, the fortune 500 types, are what they are today mostly due to outsourcing services offshore or moving whole manufacturing and processing operations to places like China, India,Vietnam etc... Not due to any great innovative thinking.

Malse is dead on accurate about the WWII correlation, the part he didn't mention, I think without looking back, was that these "destroyed" nations ended up with more efficiency in manufacturing due to the new facilities that had to be built.

You need to ground yourself in reality Akipt...life ain't always what it seems.

I'm impressed with the speech that Clinton is giving right now in DC. I think that she just did a whole lot to bring the party together. Kudos to her.

Regarding the topic title, I am convinced that Obama, barring any tragedies during the campaign, will be our next president. Obama is still basically an unknown quantity, but one who can inspire with his rhetoric and who offers hope to a nation nearing hopelessness in the current leadership and Congress. McCain cannot compete with Obama in charisma, oratory, or just plain "freshness".

I see McCain camp going negative to offset McCain's low-key persona, attempting to use national security as the wedge, so Obama will need someone like Sam Nunn to offset that. Obama can only lose if some legitimate dirt is uncovered, or if we are attacked again before November.

That is my 2 cents.

I find my self seeing an odd turn of fate... The last 8 years brought us " Anyone but Bush". This year I am starting to see many folks, while still hating McCain, turning to "Anyone but Obama". I even find my self fighting internally with this issue.. I think I will vote for McCain now. McCain is basically the male version of Hillary. At least MAYBE he would nominate conservative supreme court justices. I have come to the conclusion that if I do not vote for McCain it is automatically a vote for Obama, and America can't have that.