http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20090107/eu-ukraine-russia-gas/

This is a big one, and I think Halo touched on it in another thread.

Putin is playing hardball, you have to wonder how long his coffers can hold out though.

Spring is coming. what would Patton do?

If Ukraine is indeed siphoning off gas passing through its territory without paying for it, I don't blame the Russians for turning off the tap. I think we would do the same if in the same circumstance. My understanding is that the rest of the world is paying twice what Ukraine pays for the gas and Ukraine still wants to pay even less.

While western Europe will suffer, frankly that isn't Russia's problem. Europe should broker (or pressure) an equitable deal between Ukraine and Russia if they want the taps to re-open. Europe (and Ukraine) needs the gas, Russia needs the income. A deal should be doable.

If Ukraine is indeed siphoning off gas passing through its territory without paying for it, I don't blame the Russians for turning off the tap. I think we would do the same if in the same circumstance. My understanding is that the rest of the world is paying twice what Ukraine pays for the gas and Ukraine still wants to pay even less.

While western Europe will suffer, frankly that isn't Russia's problem. Europe should broker (or pressure) an equitable deal between Ukraine and Russia if they want the taps to re-open. Europe (and Ukraine) needs the gas, Russia needs the income. A deal should be doable.

frankly, western europe isnt suffering, they have sufficient reserves, the balkan area is suffering quite heavily though.

Putin rebuilt Russia and it's military with profits from oil and gas, after having the company more or less nationalized and the former owner/CEO/whatever arrested. Now, that company is seeing the same hardships as the rest of oil producing states due to the international economy, and he wants to keep seeing those profits, and so is asking for severe increases in Ukraine's energy costs. Ukraine has been saying, fine, if we pay more for the energy we want to charge more for allowing the pipeline to pass through our territory. It is all a mess that should not be that difficult for a negotiator to get settled.

Russia wants its cake and to eat it too. It wants to charge Ukraine more , but not pay more. Hopefully he bankrupts Russia again.

It's East Europe that's suffering. West Europe has ample reserves, as well as their own sources and gas supplies, to not really be affected in any short-term dispute (remember, Britain and Norway share the North Sea supplies which have been found, in recent years, to be substantially massive). Nonetheless, I would not be fooled by Russian antics - I very much doubt the Ukraine has been siophining off gas, it neither serves their interests nor does anything for them right now during this big freeze, as they and their neighbours actually would freeze in this severe winter right now (ie many Bulgarian towns went without central heating for much of last week due to a drop in gas supplies from the Ukraine). Yes, they could be pulling a "Georgia provocation", but I doubt it.

Russia has for long used the "Gas Corridor" as it's political and real politika leverage over Europe, and while whores such as Germany and France have been found to be very suseptible by this kind of political hard-balling, many others (most of North Europe) have not, and the disputes usually fizzle out in a slight win for Russia.

I forsee massive problems in the future if Europe does not find a way to riggle free of this overwhelming dependence on Russian gas (45% across Europe, but for some Balkan and East European countries, as much as 85%), and by Europe I don't mean just the Big Countries, but a test for the EU will be to protect all of its member states.

Putin's Russia has a lot of card's to play on his country's resurgance to Great Power status. I feel in the coming century that conflict may be a problem as the EU unites more and Russia continues to flex its muscles.