So Iran launches a satellite into orbit today and reports of Iran being nuclear capable this year. Time frame for Israel in a preemptive strike on Iran?

Doubtful imo. the last thing world powers need (US, EU etc.) right now is a conflict such as that to erupt.

Iran has had in its inventory missles capable of hitting Isreal for years. This rocket launch demostrates something more along the lines that Iran has the ability to field ICBM technology and in due time they can create nuclear a warhead for it. Now they can treaten to nuke Washington DC as well as Tel Aviv in the very near future. It gives a warm and fuzzy that every tank of gas we buy supports the economic conditions required for Iran to build these weapons. Its as smart as smoking cigarettes.

There will be no airstrike against Iran by Israel in the near future either. Iraq nor any other Islamic country will not allow Israel to use its airspace for such a strike and the Israeli F-16 variants don't have the range since they were designed for homeland defence. It would almost benifit Israel more to let Iran strike first and allow the Islamists to make the opening shot and garner some sympathy for their cause....of which there is none. Not even with US policy makers. Even by nations that don't consider Iran an ally. These savages will throw in with another Muslim nation long before they would with Israel, even if they in reality hate each other. No, Israel's only option would be to use missles themselves if they have anything capable of reaching Iran, and nuclear arming them to assure the job is done to a degree of overkill to assure completion.

So Iranians are savages? Sigh

So Iranians are savages? Sigh

You have completely cracked... Where is sweet Christ on chariot driven crutch did you get that? Why why would you say that? Seriously Jedd you are now now better then Elren. I think we all feel very very sorry for you. I can tell by the tone in your posts as of late you are inching closer and closer to that bomb belt aren't you?

Actually Os, Lummus said the were savages...and as far as their government is concerned, I 100% agree....of course you have keep in mind the US government, over the several years, has not been much better in some of their actions. Again I reiterate, things are very gray, not black and white.

Let me just spell this out for anyone who thinks otherwise. There will be no attack on Iran, but not because the time is not right or because airspace is denied. There will be no attack simply because neither the us or Israel can handle a war with Iran at this time. Too many resources needed, too many estimated casualties from within Tehran all the way to terrorist attacks in the USA, and Israel.

It is just not feasible. An airstrike will only cause Iran to respond which will jump start the whole war scenario. So there really is nothing we or Israel can do but sit here and bite our lips as a third world country de-claws us yet again.

Let me just spell this out for anyone who thinks otherwise. There will be no attack on Iran, but not because the time is not right or because airspace is denied. There will be no attack simply because neither the us or Israel can handle a war with Iran at this time. Too many resources needed, too many estimated casualties from within Tehran all the way to terrorist attacks in the USA, and Israel.

It is just not feasible. An airstrike will only cause Iran to respond which will jump start the whole war scenario. So there really is nothing we or Israel can do but sit here and bite our lips as a third world country de-claws us yet again.

But but Iran isn't connected to terrorism.

Which will it be Jedd, pick a hardline with your defens of Iran and stick to it please or suffer more verbal abuses!! ;P

But but Iran isn't connected to terrorism.

Which will it be Jedd, pick a hardline with your defens of Iran and stick to it please or suffer more verbal abuses!! ;P

Iran isn't connected to traditio al terrorists like aq and the like, but I don't doubt for one second that there are Iranian cells within the USA ready to set off explosives the day a US bomb strikes iranan soil. To be able to discuss these kinds of subjects however requires you to accept the fact that people you think are terrorists may not be. So we might as well not get into it fanny.

Iran isn't connected to traditio al terrorists like aq and the like, but I don't doubt for one second that there are Iranian cells within the USA ready to set off explosives the day a US bomb strikes iranan soil. To be able to discuss these kinds of subjects however requires you to accept the fact that people you think are terrorists may not be. So we might as well not get into it fanny.

Just want you to stop and smell the roses before you start up your usual rhetoric. What goes around comes around , trust me Iran doesn't want a conflict anymore than we do. It ends up with them sliding down into a lower third world rating.

Noone is afraid of Iran, but your point is right noone wants a war due to resources being tied up elsewhere.

Let me just spell this out for anyone who thinks otherwise. There will be no attack on Iran, but not because the time is not right or because airspace is denied. There will be no attack simply because neither the us or Israel can handle a war with Iran at this time. Too many resources needed, too many estimated casualties from within Tehran all the way to terrorist attacks in the USA, and Israel.

It is just not feasible. An airstrike will only cause Iran to respond which will jump start the whole war scenario. So there really is nothing we or Israel can do but sit here and bite our lips as a third world country de-claws us yet again.

I tend to agree, somewhat. Any attack would severely disrupt the shipment of oil out of the gulf region and jack the cost of oil to stratospheric levels. Not something the US wants in the current economic crisis. On top of that, no attack by Israel would succeed in destroying the Iranian nuclear weapon program and would simply give the Iranians the self defense political cover to openly develop nukes.

The Iranian facilities are heavily fortified and many are deep in the country. There is no guarantee they have all been identified either. No single non-nuclear attack can take them all out.

It took over a month for the much larger and better equipped US Airforce to seriously degrade the military infrastructure of Iraq. Israel does not have the ability to maintain that sort of campaign against Iran, which is a larger country than Iraq, and further away.

Just want you to stop and smell the roses before you start up your usual rhetoric. What goes around comes around , trust me Iran doesn't want a conflict anymore than we do. It ends up with them sliding down into a lower third world rating.

Noone is afraid of Iran, but your point is right noone wants a war due to resources being tied up elsewhere.

There are elements within Iran that do want a war with the US, but they are suicidal. Mostly however you are right, the people, and the government for the most part would be better off with no conflict.

I think this is a slightly more complicated issue then one where you can claim a country is or is not afraid of another.

Indeed there is fear involved, but the fear is in the outcome of action taken. The US and Israel may not fear Iran, but indeed the US and Israel fear the outcome of a war with Iran. Not because they are afraid they will lose, but because they are afraid of the cost of said victory.

Gulor made an excellent post as well, and I agree with his assessment.

The only thing that worries me is if domestic Israeli political pressure to strike Iran before it hits Israel begins to outweigh logic. Politicians have done stupid-assed things before.

An attack on Iran by Israel would be catastrophic for everyone concerned. Iran can easily close the Straits of Hormuz, stir up shit in Iraq with their various proxies and likely attack Israel from Lebanon with Hezbollah as well. I wouldn't be surprised if the US lost a ship or three to submarines or missile strikes too. Large numbers of Iranian civilians would certainly die, particularly if an operating reactor is damaged and a meltdown results. Mini-Chernobyl anyone?

In the case of an attack it would be as they said in the movie Full Metal Jacket: Its a big shit sandwich and we all have to take a bite.

Let me just spell this out for anyone who thinks otherwise. There will be no attack on Iran, but not because the time is not right or because airspace is denied. There will be no attack simply because neither the us or Israel can handle a war with Iran at this time. Too many resources needed, too many estimated casualties from within Tehran all the way to terrorist attacks in the USA, and Israel.

It is just not feasible. An airstrike will only cause Iran to respond which will jump start the whole war scenario. So there really is nothing we or Israel can do but sit here and bite our lips as a third world country de-claws us yet again.

I think Iraq is a major factor in keeping Iran alive. It's has really made us lose our taste for War at the moment. Iran would be a parking lot in no time if we really wanted to fight with them.

I would be pretty damn surprised if their old ass subs could get anywhere close to our carrier groups.

An attack on Iran by Israel would be catastrophic for everyone concerned.


It would remove about $5 billion per year from our foreign aid program.

Rofl!

I would be pretty damn surprised if their old ass subs could get anywhere close to our carrier groups.

I'm mainly concerned about Russian supplied long range wake-following torpedoes. Iran claims to have hypercavitating torpedoes as well (though I am skeptical of that claim). It only takes one torpedo strike to ruin your day and pinpointing subs is never guaranteed. We have a lot of other ships that are vulnerable in the gulf itself to both silkworm missiles and torpedoes with little room to maneuver as well.

I'm mainly concerned about Russian supplied long range wake-following torpedoes. Iran claims to have hypercavitating torpedoes as well (though I am skeptical of that claim). It only takes one torpedo strike to ruin your day and pinpointing subs is never guaranteed. We have a lot of other ships that are vulnerable in the gulf itself to both silkworm missiles and torpedoes with little room to maneuver as well.

Long before the navy entered those straits I'm sure the USAF would turn those batteries and surrounding land into non radioactive glass.

The satellite lauched is about the size of a shoe box. Picture of satellite under construction in the first 2 links.
http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/2173/iranian-satellite-launch
http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/2174/congratulations-iran
http://blog.wired.com/defense/2009/02/iran-sat-launch.html
http://blog.wired.com/defense/2009/02/video-iran-laun.html

The satellite is about 1 order of magnitude too small for a nuclear bomb. To launch a nuclear warhead, the Iranian launch vehicle would need to be about 10-25x the dimensions of the current one, based on the fuels used/available in Iran.

To build a nuclear bomb, Uranium has to be enriched to about 80-90% fissile.
To build a nuclear power plant [1], Uranium has to be enriched to about 3-5% fissile.

No sample of Uranium collected from any facility in Iran exceeds 5% fissile [2].

Uranium deposits in Iran contain too much Molybdenum to be refined into nuclear weapons. They'd have to advance their chemical industry about 20 years to get to where they have the technology to deal with the moly contamination.

Notes:
1 - The exception are the Canadian reactors that are called CANDU (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CANDU). Those use unenriched Uranium (which is about 0.7% fissile) and heavy water. They are building a heavy water plant that should come online about 2014.
2 - The IAEA (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IAEA) conducts the inspections. The nuclear nonproliferation treaty (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Non-Proliferation_Treaty) says that signatories, such as Iran, are guaranteed the right to build nuclear power plants. The NPT also says that countries with nuclear weapons are supposed to dismantle/destroy all their nuclear weapons. Each of the Parties to the Treaty undertakes to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a treaty on general and complete disarmament

Long before the navy entered those straits I'm sure the USAF would turn those batteries and surrounding land into non radioactive glass.

If we were the ones striking Iran, maybe. If Israel does it without collaboration not so much, but Iran would surely attack the US vessels in retaliation for an Israeli strike regardless. And many of our vessels are *already* patrolling in the strait. They are the ships most at risk.

If the US is given plenty of warning, then yes we can leave the strait before an Israeli attack is made. Of course doing so would be an immediate tip off to Iran that an attack was coming, so I'm doubtful Israel would bother telling us until the last moment.

The current satellite launched from Iran is far too small (60 lbs) to be a threat to be sure. However they themselves have stated their next goal is to greatly increase their payload launching capability. We can expect to see larger and larger payloads in future launches as they continue development. They will likely attain sufficient launch capability to put a warhead sized payload into orbit within a few years... coincidentally about the same time frame it will take them to weaponize any nuclear explosives they are developing (unless they are "gifted"a warhead design by a more advanced nuclear state).