http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13132960

- As the revolutionary tide sweeps across Syria as well, where do you believe the political map of the Middle East is heading? Are we likely to see a patchwork of democratic states, liberal and friendly (even indifferent?) to the West? Or is it the one Western states fear: radicalized Islamic nations?

Or are we overestimating it? Will it soon fizzle out into stalemate, ala Libya, or repression, ala Syria?

Whatchya thoughts?

From my experience in the Middle East the majority of people seem to simply want to live their lives in peace and relative mediocrity. They want what we, as a Western civilization are in danger of losing, namely a middle class. Not poor enough to be completely miserable, but not rich enough to be lording their wealth over those below them. The radicalism is merely a small percentage, just like anywhere else in the world. Sadly, only that small percentage get all the media coverage. No one wants to watch a news report on Habib the happy cabbage farmer right? =P

A vast fundy Islamic block directly or indirectly ruled by the crazies in Tehran.

Tehran isn't as isolated as it seemed, apparently. 30% unemployment is a staggering high number and enough to make any dictator scared in the current climate.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/05/09/turkey.iran.ahmadinejad/index.html

More concerned about Syria at the moment. They seem to be holding on tighter than The Colonel in Tripoli!

I'm interested to see how history will write the Arab Spring. Will it attribute it to social and economic forces, like high unemploymeny, or ideological forces, such as democracy?

I think its undoubtedly an economic catalyst. Only when your family is starving, you are out of work, and your leaders are billionaires does it make sense en masse to put your lives on the line to stand up to a dictator.

I think its undoubtedly an economic catalyst. Only when your family is starving, you are out of work, and your leaders are billionaires does it make sense en masse to put your lives on the line to stand up to a dictator.

unless you're a North Korean :(

The big difference when it comes to North Korea is that these Arab uprisings had the benefit of Twitter, Facebook, and ubiquitous access via cell phones. They understood how bad the disparity was between their situation and the rest of the world (and were able to communicate together in ad-hoc groups), whereas most North Koreans still don't even realize that the rest of the world isn't as bleak as North Korea.

There's an interesting book about the situation there, Nothing to Envy. The Vice Guide to North Korea (http://www.vbs.tv/watch/the-vice-guide-to-travel/vice-guide-to-north-korea-1-of-3) is also good if you're interested.

The media access was definitely a huge part of the equation in the ability to organize; I am not sure what access to media is allowed in NK, but I would expect it is severely limited.

My own take on the Arab uprisings is that they are primarily driven by the extreme disparity between the haves and have-nots, and the ability (via the media) of the lower classes to realize exactly how they are being kept at the bottom. The response of some leaders to use deadly force against their people to maintain their power I believe will ultimately result in a larger, more widespread, organized revolution.

http://www.vbs.tv/watch/the-vice-guide-to-travel/vice-guide-to-north-korea-1-of-3

Watched this yesterday. It's 3 parts long, and it's about 50 minutes long total. It was a very interesting 'documentary' on North Korea. The people that filmed it took great risks to produce it. I would venture to guess after watching it that North Koreans have NO access to media/internet. The guards (who live substantially better than the normal citizens) didn't know what Punk, Jazz, or even the Blues are. The goal of the government when dealing with the population in North Korea is to keep everything from the rest of the world out, so they don't know how horribly they have it. The population is indoctrinated from an early age to hate the west and to think that North Korea is the most technologically advanced country in the world.

interesting watch...other then the same commercial over and over. :)

Thanks Tal!!

Informative and scary...I didn't realize just how isolated and brainwashed the population there is.