http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2008/06/exponential-tec.html

At the recent World Science Festival in New York City, Ray Kurzweil outlined why he is certain that the future isn’t as dreary as it’s been painted, and why we are closer to the incredible than we think: Exponential upward curves can be deceptively gradual in the beginning. But when things start happening, they happen fast. Here are a selection of his predicted trajectories for these “miracles” based on his educated assessment of where science and technology is at in the present.

· Within 5 years the exponential progress in nanoengineering will make Solar power cost-competitive with fossil fuels

· Within 10 years we will have a pill that allows us all to eat whatever we feel like and never gain any unwanted weight

· In 15 years, life expectancies will start rising faster than we age

· In about 20 years 100% of our energy will come from clean and renewable sources, and a computer will pass the Turing Test by carrying on a conversation that is indistinguishable from a human’s.

I think it's hard to even comprehend how cheap, efficient solar power could fundamentally change how we live.

I'll look for his TED presentation later. It was a fairly compelling presentation of basically the same material.

When do we get flying cars, and will the Earth be ruled by damned, dirty apes?

I had the opportunity to hear a speech given by him at a conference a couple years ago. After listening to him walk through the theories behind the concepts he was putting forth, everything seemed extremely plausible and even likely.

He of course has his detractors but even if you don't believe a single word, his books make for entertaining reading.

Thanks San, rather heartening to hear that.

Did he say when the Saints would win the Superbowl? I only have about 60 years left on Earth....

http://blog.modernmechanix.com/2006/10/05/miracles-youll-see-in-the-next-fifty-years/

http://blog.modernmechanix.com/2008/03/24/what-will-life-be-like-in-the-year-2008/



It always seems like on these "what will the future bring" articles, we're either nowhere near what they imagined or way beyond it.

Extrapolation, particularly with exponential curves, can be dangerous!

Extrapolation, particularly with exponential curves, can be dangerous!


Too true!

She slapped me upside the face the last time I tried extrapolating her curves, exponentially.

At the same time, those who ignore the power of non-linear growth don't end up much better off in their predictions. Like this guy (http://research.microsoft.com/ACM97/gb/tsld010.htm):



I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.

Here's Kurzweil's TED talk on the topic: http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/38

NY Times covered it too: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/03/science/03tier.html?ex=1370318400&en=1e7250b53e2ce526&ei=5124&partner=digg&exprod=digg

His thoughts on Solar Power are probably pretty close to dead on. The Singularity, however, that in just 90 years humans will be immortal beings ... well, I'll believe it when I see it!