The move by Taliban-backed militants into the Buna district of northwestern Pakistan, closer than ever to Pakistan's capital of Islamabad, have prompted concerns both within the country and abroad that the nuclear-armed nation of 165 million is on the verge of inexorable collapse.


On Wednesday a local Taliban militia crossed from the Swat Valley - where a February cease-fire allowed the implementation of strict Islamic, or Shari'a, law - into the neighboring Buner district, which is just a few hours drive from Islamabad (65 miles, separated by a mountain range, as the crow flies).

Who thinks we move in to get Pakistan's nuclear arms out of there before the Taliban can get and use them?

Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

I say we end up backing the Pakistani government in what is quickly becoming a war inside of Pakistan.

The Pakistani military was offered Permissive Action Link (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permissive_Action_Link) technology in the past, but they rejected it on the grounds that they didn't trust the US not to remotely disable the weapons, or to leave some back-door control mechanism that resulted in requiring US approval to use them.

We've made plans to sieze the weapons in the event that Musharraf was overthrown, but neither he, nor their military liked the idea so they dispersed their weaponry. The Pakistanis use gun-type (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun-type_fission_weapon) uranium weapons (hiroshima nukes, if you prefer) for their nukes (with the exception of NK [I don't know what type of nukes they use, if any], every other nuclear power uses plutonium weapons), so the hypothesis is that their version of "PAL" is to keep the "bullet" separate from the "barrel" to secure them from unauthorized use.

It is reasonable to conclude that if we made an attempt to "secure" their nukes, they'd go batshit insane and launch what didn't get stolen or destroyed. At India, at US bases in the region - whatever was left. Our base at Diego Garcia looks to be out of range of their latest (Shaheen 2) missiles (about 2500km range). Tel Aviv looks to be just barely out of range of the Shaheen 2 missiles.

Some reading material on PALs:
http://www.cs.columbia.edu/~smb/nsam-160/pal.html
http://www.cdi.org/blair/permissive-action-links.cfm
http://www.stanford.edu/class/ee380/Abstracts/060315-slides-bellovin.pdf

India would be a major player in that senario for sure.

An ugly situation for sure. We simply can't afford letting the Taliban get their hands on the Pakistani nukes, because they will certainly use them at the earliest opportunity. If that means coming in to buck up the Pakistani army, so be it. If that fails, it means finding and grabbing their nukes ahead of the Taliban without Pakistan's permission is going to be the only option left. I hate to say it, but that may also involve making sure Pakistan's nuclear scientists are made unavailable to the Taliban by what ever means required. Scary stuff.

Now the Taliban with nukes is scary... Take em out!

More war to come for sure.....

If it appears the Taliban is going to successfully topple the government and possibly gain access to the nuclear weapons, I think India might launch as a preemptive tactic.

And not just India. I would expect a fairly aggressive response from India, China, and Iran.

Wonder if we'll back Iran on this particular front?

Wonder if we'll back Iran on this particular front?


What is the saying...The enemy of my enemy....

Exactly Rover.
I hope the leadership of the Taliban are intelligent enough* to realize what a massive mistake it would be to start tossing around nukes should they actually manage to sieze any of them.

Bet ya a 1000 Vdollars there is some very serious moves bieng made behind the scenes right now to get these weapons secured.

*to assume the Taliban leadership are nothing more than ignorant goat herders would be a big mistake. never underestimate your enemy.

No, there will be no 'war' in Pakistan. That is certainly *not* the kind of country you can just walk in and 'grab' their nukes. It is an aggressive military power (that has not shrunk from waging war on its titanic neighbour on several ocassions) with, of course, nuclear capabilities and advanced weaponary.

The news is certainly portraying the situation in Pakistan as the Taliban is currently, with out any troubles ..marching towads its nukes.

I think we step in and either bomb the Taliban members back into being goat hearders, or 'forcibly dismantle' those nukes. Letting them get access to that material is unacceptable.

And 'the enemy of my enemy' would probably fit in this situation, as long as Iran doesn't get access to that material as well. We should't readily accept that they wouldn't try to relocate those weapons inside their country for safekeeping .

I think we step in and either bomb the Taliban members back into being goat hearders
Are you kidding?! Here we go again eh?

Why didn't the U.S. Military stay in Afghanistan and eliminate the threat about 8 years ago. Oooo thats right, they "stepped in to bomb" another country, one with a huge stockpile of WMD, oops! that wasn't the case was it.

Give me a break Sixee.

The most I would feel comfortable with is to see the U.S. Military continue its cruise missle strikes on specfic targets in the Taliban strong hold areas, or at most offer up some special ops to help guard nuke facilities.

Pakistan has a population of around 180 million (more than half of the U.S.). Throwing bombs at Taliban that are using soft targets as cover will ensure high civilian casualties. Another black mark the U.S. would do well to avoid.

Now if you see a fracture in the populace and a huge percentage join the efforts of the Taliban then we all have a much bigger problem. Personally I don't think it will play out like that.

The Taliban are sandwiched at the moment. More U.S. troops filtering in to Afghanistan and turning up the heat (finally! thank you Obama) and a pro American Pakistani government who will help to put pressure on the other side. Something is going to come to a head. Will it involve nukes? I doubt it.

Cheers,

Just need more support (boots on the ground...large amounts) from other countrys, Taliban getting nukes is not only a US problem, its EVERYONES problem.

I think we step in and either bomb the Taliban members back into being goat hearders, or 'forcibly dismantle' those nukes. Letting them get access to that material is unacceptable.

And 'the enemy of my enemy' would probably fit in this situation, as long as Iran doesn't get access to that material as well. We should't readily accept that they wouldn't try to relocate those weapons inside their country for safekeeping .


But how can the Federal Government monitor the Taliban...what if they end up monitoring our local PTA? Isn't that the real danger? Don't the Taliban have a right to say what they want especially since they are not a threat to the US? We've never been attacked by the Taliban...what makes them a threat to the USA?

Are you kidding?! Here we go again eh?

Why didn't the U.S. Military stay in Afghanistan and eliminate the threat about 8 years ago. Oooo thats right, they "stepped in to bomb" another country, one with a huge stockpile of WMD, oops! that wasn't the case was it.

Give me a break Sixee.

The most I would feel comfortable with is to see the U.S. Military continue its cruise missle strikes on specfic targets in the Taliban strong hold areas, or at most offer up some special ops to help guard nuke facilities.

Pakistan has a population of around 180 million (more than half of the U.S.). Throwing bombs at Taliban that are using soft targets as cover will ensure high civilian casualties. Another black mark the U.S. would do well to avoid.

Now if you see a fracture in the populace and a huge percentage join the efforts of the Taliban then we all have a much bigger problem. Personally I don't think it will play out like that.

The Taliban are sandwiched at the moment. More U.S. troops filtering in to Afghanistan and turning up the heat (finally! thank you Obama) and a pro American Pakistani government who will help to put pressure on the other side. Something is going to come to a head. Will it involve nukes? I doubt it.

Cheers,

We stayed in Afghanistan and were continuing air and ground action all the time. Common misperception is we left, we didn't.

Please to actually do more than read the PR of groups wishing to make the US look bad.

We stayed in Afghanistan and were continuing air and ground action all the time. Common misperception is we left, we didn't.

Please to actually do more than read the PR of groups wishing to make the US look bad.


There was a long period where we cut back our forces, that is fact. It is only recently that we have started to increase military strength there and it is arguably not the correct way to approach Afghanistan.

Way back in 2001 we took the whole thing with less than 1500 troops.

We stayed in Afghanistan and were continuing air and ground action all the time.I never said you cut tail and ran for the hills Fandros. I should have said "Why didn't the MAJORITY of the U.S. Military stay in Afghanistan".

Common misperception is we left, we didn'tThe U.S. Military barely stayed compared to the numbers of troops that poored into Iraq.


Cheers,

The special ops guarding sites idea would be good, as long as the populace doesn't decide to throw in with the Taliban. But if you think the Taliban doesn't want those nukes, you are living in a fairy tale.

And Rover, while the Taliban didn't directly attack the U.S. they provided safe haven for Osama. What's to say they wouldn't pass that stuff along to Al Qaeda? The 'friend of my enemy, is my enemy' so to speak.

I never said you cut tail and ran for the hills Fandros. I should have said "Why didn't the MAJORITY of the U.S. Military stay in Afghanistan".

The U.S. Military barely stayed compared to the numbers of troops that poored into Iraq.


Cheers,

Typical for folks who know little about the military to think purely in numbers. The action in Afgan will never require the numbers like Iraq did. That being said we definately should've kept rolling hard in Afgan instead of shifting focus.

The special ops guarding sites idea would be good, as long as the populace doesn't decide to throw in with the Taliban. But if you think the Taliban doesn't want those nukes, you are living in a fairy tale.

And Rover, while the Taliban didn't directly attack the U.S. they provided safe haven for Osama. What's to say they wouldn't pass that stuff along to Al Qaeda? The 'friend of my enemy, is my enemy' so to speak.

I'm just looking at it through your eyes..remember those neo-nazi victims of big government?

It's different when you are dealing with people that are not citizens of your own country. They are not afforded the same rights as those that are. Just my opinion, of course.

I'm just looking at it through your eyes..remember those neo-nazi victims of big government?

Are the guys in the hills of Afghanistan US citizens?

Typical for folks who know little about the military to think purely in numbers.


Typical poo flinging from a grunt who only thinks military folks can analyze and comment on situations like this. Would you fling your same stinky poo at Halo, he's not miltary but has some very insightful military analysis for us here on these boards?


Cheers,

Typical poo flinging from a grunt who only thinks military folks can analyze and comment on situations like this. Would you fling your same stinky poo at Halo, he's not miltary but has some very insightful military analysis for us here on these boards?


Cheers,


He was not a grunt...he was an air winger.

No, there will be no 'war' in Pakistan. That is certainly *not* the kind of country you can just walk in and 'grab' their nukes. It is an aggressive military power (that has not shrunk from waging war on its titanic neighbour on several ocassions) with, of course, nuclear capabilities and advanced weaponary.

It *was* an aggressive military power. It seems to have completely lost its will for serious fighting in the last few years with all the political turmoil it has undergone. In the scenario we fear (i.e. the government collapsing under Taliban assault), there won't be a coherent Pakistan left to effectively oppose anyone coming in to grab their nukes. Their military command is split between hard core militant sympathizers and secular professionals who would be at each other's throats. It will be a country in total collapse and chaos. The Pakistani army already seems unable/unwilling to deal with a few hundred militants seizing territory within their borders as we speak, let alone hold back a well planned military operation to secure their nukes. Would there be resistance? Absolutely. It would be a bloody affair, no mistake. But given the stakes, it would be a price the US would be willing to pay. There is little doubt the Taliban (or their Al Qaeda buddies) would use nukes against the US if they get their hands on them.

The real problem would be finding those nukes in the first place before they could be fired off and figuring out a way to get them out of country. They could have as many as 100 weapons and that is an awful lot of material to track down and move. You probably could not be certain you got them all either, unless there is cooperation from someone in the know within the Pakistan military or government.

I rather suspect a large proportion of the more secular professional military would defect to Britain and the US should it look like the Taliban is going to win power. We have seen something similar before when Iran went through it's revolution and South Vietnam collapsed, but in this case the incoming Taliban "government" would be far more extreme and ruthless.

The Taliban taking nukes. Heh, that will be the day. They are rural guerrillas foremost, relying on their knowledge and acclamation to the terrain as their advantage. Our troops are in vehicles with body armor. Most Taliban fighters are on foot, and armed only with offensive light arms of which they can make quick but devastating ambushes and then flee into the countryside. They have no real strength, but they excel at exploiting weakness and intimidating the locals. Pakistan will fight them tooth and nail if need be, which so far they have honestly not felt there is a need for yet as they can defend the major population centers against most anything that could compromise a nuclear weapon being poached by the Taliban. You have to remember that the Taliban ultimately is NOT offering a better existence to Pakistan. Quite the opposite, unless you count rolling the clock back an improvement. Hezbolah and Hamas are more effective governing bodies then the Taliban could ever be and too many people would find the Taliban ever even coming close to procession of nukes completely unacceptable no matter what the outcome.

People commonly forget that a country such as Iraq or Afghanistan is more than just the small insurgent groups and the so called "occupying force". The majority of the civilians just want to move on to a stable existence and provide basic needs to their families. The insurgent groups typically don't offer much in return other than an outlet for vengeance or something to do when broke, unemployed and hopeless. Muslim or not, they majority of the people know that if a group like the Taliban grabs control of nukes, nothing good will come of it for anyone, and that might be a big motivating force as well as an excuse for the world to pull together to take common action.

As for the Chinese carrier......its going to be a while but they will build one. Building a carrier is more than just building the one ship. Its also how to replenish it, design aircraft, man it, support it (a carrier is a sitting duck to subs without a task force to back it up) etc. Its like having a kid. The first one is the bank breaker and learning curve. Any after that you already have the support system in place and the experience. Who knows if it will be a Super Carrier like a Nimitz class. It might be more along the lines of a French or Indian carrier with a sky jump deck for a limited amount of shorter range and slower assault aircraft which could intimidate a port or a small geographical area and not so much project force globally. The US has almost 60 years of not just technology but also training of personnel to man carriers and the naval based aviation systems, with easily 30 of those years utilizing carriers in active combat. Its doubtful they can get a equal or superior carrier task force afloat in comparison to existing nations that have a carrier any time soon, but it only takes one carrier taskforce in the South China Sea to denote that its their turf.

Its not the threat of the Taliban stealing a couple of nukes in the field that is the real threat, it is the Taliban taking over the country politically (with the help of government sympathizers) and thereby the keys to the nukes.

Remember, the Taliban was the creation of the ISI which is riddled with individuals that support and agree with Taliban policies. There is a good reason US intelligence stopped sharing intel with them regarding drone strikes. They at least are not rural goatherds and would be fully capable of operating nuclear weapons on behalf of the Taliban leadership. Several of Pakistan's nuclear scientists are said to be fundamentalists as well.

One would hope the Pakistani people would resist takeover, but so far they have not done much to prevent it.

One would hope the Pakistani people would resist takeover, but so far they have not done much to prevent it.

There were good articles addressing this point on both the BBC and Der Spiegel this week. The Pakistani people, by and large, are both upset and mystified at why the army isn't doing anything about the problem, but as you've said, the problem is that the military has been systematically compromised with extremists and at this point factions in the military have goals that run counter to those of the people. Keep in mind, as has been mentioned, that the northwest of the country is not representative of Pakistan as a whole; it's a country containing several large cosmopolitan cities that are comparable to those in India or the West, but like Iran, the country *could* very well fall from within to fundamentalism. From today's BBC:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8016485.stm

In particular, check out some of the comments from Pakistani citizens below the article itself, including suggestions that Pakistan *invite* the Indian and Chinese armies in to clean up the mess...

Regards,
Nydia

The Taliban taking nukes. Heh, that will be the day. They are rural guerrillas foremost, relying on their knowledge and acclamation to the terrain as their advantage.

Once the Taliban controls large swaths of the rural areas of Pakistan, which they are taking almost without a fight from a divided government and apathetic army, they will inherit the rest of Pakistan, real military force included.

This is a couple of weeks old, but a quality article from Der Spiegel on the fundamentalist Frankenstein monster Pakistan has aided and abetted via the ISI and which now threatens to bring down the Pakistani state:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,618170,00.html

Once the Taliban controls large swaths of the rural areas of Pakistan, which they are taking almost without a fight from a divided government and apathetic army, they will inherit the rest of Pakistan, real military force included.

The military commanders that refused to take part in the governing of the country still run the military, and I do not believe they will continue to stand by much longer waiting for an ineffective governing body to let them do their jobs. I would not be at all surprised to see another coup if that was the only way they could gain the freedom to repel the Taliban.

I was not directly disproving a Taliban take over. What I am arguing is that ultimate the majority of the people, both Pakistani and globally, will not stand for it. Pakistan would most certainly be invaded by outside forces, India being the spearhead as that represents the greatest threat to their security with international partners in tow. It would give the world a reason to stamp out the Taliban once and for all and sicken the majority of Muslims. It would not be a victory for Muslims worldwide, thats for sure. More like a loss. Even if the lunatic fringe succeeds in a take over and even if they detonate an atomic weapon in a city (where else would these assholes blow one up? They are terrorists.) it would be the first and last act they would ever commit.

The End.

The Pakistani army is almost all Muslim and probably is not very keen on fighting other Muslims as their real or imagined enemy are the Hindu Indians which in all likelihood will end up fighting.

I think it is safe to say once the Taliban showed their ease and willingness to ignore a treaty that quickly and the almost non response of the Pakistani government...this country is gone. Hit the nukes with cruise missiles, shut down our embassy, get our Afghanistan logistics out of there...pull the plug on Afghanistan and bring em home. Just not worth the fight.

We should do what should have been done the first time around.

Glass parking lot.

The Pakistani military has launched an attack using jets and assault helicopters on the Taliban militants who have been moving closer to the capital. Apparently they are not ready to roll over just yet to the fanatics.

Yay!